Arjantin\u2019in Nisan ay\u0131 ayl\u0131k (aydan aya) vergi gelirleri 17 milyar olurken, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde 16.071 milyar seviyesindeydi. Bu, aydan aya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Veriler, Nisan i\u00e7in 16.071 milyardan 17 milyara bir de\u011fi\u015fim oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. A\u00e7\u0131klamada ek bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m ya da ba\u011flam yer alm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131ndaki vergi geliri \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc (16 trilyon pesonun \u00fczerinden yaln\u0131zca 17 milyar pesoya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f), \u00f6zellikle 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrekte enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u0131la yay\u0131larak hesaplanmas\u0131) %410\u2019a yeniden h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda, acil ve a\u011f\u0131r bir kriz sinyali olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu tablo, Arjantin pesosunda (ARS; \u00fclkenin para birimi) piyasada anl\u0131k i\u015flem fiyat\u0131 olan spot piyasada ve forward\/futures (vadeli i\u015flem; belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) piyasalar\u0131nda sert de\u011fer kayb\u0131 riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. ARS \u00fczerinde \u201cput opsiyonu\u201d (satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon; kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazan\u0131r) almak ya da peso vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyon\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen pozisyon) a\u00e7mak gibi y\u00fcksek riskli stratejiler, bu t\u00fcr bir senaryoda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00fcndeme gelir.<\/p>\n
Bu gelir a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, devletin bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyememesi anlam\u0131na gelen \u201cegemen bor\u00e7 temerr\u00fcd\u00fc\u201d (sovereign default; \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f\/i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 \u00f6demelerini aksatmas\u0131) riskini y\u00fckseltiyor. Ayr\u0131ca Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cnet rezervleri\u201dnin (k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra kalan kullan\u0131labilir d\u00f6viz varl\u0131\u011f\u0131) ge\u00e7en hafta 2 milyar dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi\u011finin bildirilmesi, kamu \u00f6demelerini kar\u015f\u0131lama kapasitesinin zay\u0131f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ko\u015fullarda, Arjantin\u2019in CDS primlerinin (Credit Default Swap; temerr\u00fct riskine kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta, primi y\u00fckselirse risk alg\u0131s\u0131 artar) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde y\u00fckselmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
\u00dclkenin ana hisse endeksi Merval\u2019in (Buenos Aires borsas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca endeksi) 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde %40\u2019tan fazla gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan, ekonomik faaliyetin yava\u015flamas\u0131yla sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 artabilir. Baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemlerde Merval vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almay\u0131 veya Arjantin odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon; hisse gibi al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131l\u0131r) \u201cout-of-the-money put\u201d (mevcut fiyattan daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 satma opsiyonu; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sertle\u015firse de\u011ferlenir) gibi daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 maliyetli opsiyonlar\u0131 tercih eder. \u201cTan\u0131ml\u0131 risk\u201d (maksimum zarar\u0131n \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, \u00f6zellikle opsiyon i\u015flemlerinde bu nedenle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok veri: Arjantin Nisan vergi gelirleri 16,071 milyardan 17 milyara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ancak metin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f uyar\u0131yor. Enflasyon, rezerv erimesi ve temerr\u00fct riski CDS, ARS ve Merval\u2019de sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46124","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46124"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46124\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46124"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}