G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD) pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %3\u2019ten fazla geriledi. ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla g\u00fcvenli liman talebi artt\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. XAG\/USD, 76,00 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 72,74 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Donanmas\u0131, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u201cOperation Freedom\u201d (\u00d6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck Operasyonu) ad\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi harek\u00e2t\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan XAG\/USD y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirdi ve grafikte \u201cay\u0131 yutma\u201d (bearish engulfing: y\u00fckseli\u015f mumu sonras\u0131nda daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f mumunun \u00f6nceki mumun g\u00f6vdesini tamamen yutmas\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali) formasyonu olu\u015ftu. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge; 0-100 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini g\u00f6stermesi sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131r) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f momentumuna i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
70,86 dolar\u0131n (son d\u00f6ng\u00fc dibi ve 20 Nisan\u2019daki \u201cswing low\u201d yani k\u0131sa vadeli dip seviye) alt\u0131na ini\u015f, kay\u0131plar\u0131 derinle\u015ftirebilir. Sonraki seviyeler 70,00 dolar ve nisan ay\u0131 dibi olan 68,28 dolar.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek seviyeleri hedefleyebilmesi i\u00e7in 73,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f gerekiyor. Sonraki diren\u00e7 noktalar\u0131 4 May\u0131s zirvesi 76,98 dolar ve 78,00 dolar.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyatlar\u0131; jeopolitik risk (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 gerilim\/keskinle\u015fen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimali), resesyon endi\u015feleri (ekonomik daralma korkusu), faiz oranlar\u0131 ve metal dolar cinsinden fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndan etkilenebilir. Ayr\u0131ca fiyatlar; talep, madencilik arz\u0131 (madenlerden \u00fcretim), geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, elektronik ve g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisindeki sanayi kullan\u0131m\u0131 ve ABD-\u00c7in-Hindistan\u2019daki e\u011filimler taraf\u0131ndan \u015fekillenir; \u00e7o\u011fu zaman alt\u0131n\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan takip eder.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131la k\u0131yasla ABD Dolar\u0131 ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fcvenli liman talebinden yararlanm\u0131yor ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ara verdi\u011fini i\u015faret etti. Daha zay\u0131f dolar ve yatay faizler, \u201cgetiri \u00fcretmeyen varl\u0131klar\u201d (faiz\/kupon geliri olmayan varl\u0131klar) olan g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi enstr\u00fcmanlar i\u00e7in daha destekleyici bir zemin olu\u015fturur. Bu durum, May\u0131s 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131n de\u011ferli metaller \u00fczerinde belirgin bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemden ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Sanayi talebi g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir itici g\u00fc\u00e7 olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re beklentilerin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. K\u00fcresel sanayi t\u00fcketiminin 2026\u2019da 690 milyon ons ile yeni rekor k\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcne\u015f paneli talebinde y\u0131ll\u0131k %20 y\u00fckseli\u015f ve elektrikli ara\u00e7 (EV) \u00fcretimi destekliyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sanayi kullan\u0131m\u0131, fiyatlar i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturuyor; 2025\u2019te ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ise fiyatlamada jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler daha bask\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\/G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131 (Gold\/Silver ratio: 1 ons alt\u0131n almak i\u00e7in ka\u00e7 ons g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steren oran) ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu d\u00f6nem 85:1\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, sonras\u0131nda 78:1 ile tarihsel ortalamaya daha yak\u0131n seviyelere geriledi. Buna ra\u011fmen oran h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek say\u0131l\u0131yor; bu da g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn alt\u0131na k\u0131yasla g\u00f6rece ucuz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve aradaki fark\u0131 kapatma alan\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 \u201cg\u00f6reli de\u011fer\u201d (relative value: iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n birbirine g\u00f6re ucuz\/pahal\u0131 olmas\u0131na dayal\u0131) i\u015flemlerde g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fc alt\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmaya y\u00f6neltebilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta, May\u0131s 2025\u2019teki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f formasyonlar\u0131 art\u0131k belirleyici de\u011fil. 73 dolar seviyesinde zorlanmak yerine g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u015fu anda 82 dolar civar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc deste\u011fin \u00fczerinde yatay seyrediyor ve 88 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k zirveyi test etmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm; \u201cal\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak veya \u201cbo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadi\u201d (bull call spread: ayn\u0131 vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satma; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 getiri hedefleyen strateji) kurmak gibi, 90 dolar hedefi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalanmaya uygun bir kurgu sunabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte sert sat\u0131\u015f: XAG\/USD %3\u2019ten fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. 76\u2019dan 72,74\u2019e geri \u00e7ekildi. Ay\u0131 yutma ve zay\u0131flayan RSI, 70,86 alt\u0131 riskini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46121","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46121","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46121"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46121\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46121"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46121"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46121"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}