Joachim Nagel, ECB\u2019de politika yap\u0131c\u0131 ve Almanya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Bundesbank) Ba\u015fkan\u0131, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Frankfurt\u2019ta konu\u015ftu. Nagel, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzamas\u0131n\u0131n, ECB ad\u0131m atmazsa enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalma riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Nagel, 2022\u2019ye g\u00f6re ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n daha iyi oldu\u011funu belirtti. Enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc iyile\u015fmezse haziranda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, ECB i\u00e7inde etkili bir isimden gelen net bir \u201c\u015fahin\u201d sinyal. \u201c\u015eahin\u201d duru\u015f, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rma e\u011filimini ifade eder. Bu nedenle, bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n faiz indirimi de\u011fil, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olabilece\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Bu durum, piyasan\u0131n mevcut beklentisiyle \u00e7eli\u015fiyor ve Avrupa faizlerine duyarl\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesini gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n
Gerek\u00e7e, son verilerle do\u011frudan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Jeopolitik gerginlikler enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itiyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde \u201cUyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u201d (HICP), \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi, Nisan 2026\u2019da %2,7 ile \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d kald\u0131; yani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yava\u015f ve %2 hedefinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde. Brent petrol de son bir ayd\u0131r varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederek enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor ve \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli faiz piyasas\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, haziran ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131na dair fiyatlaman\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesi demek. 3 ayl\u0131k EURIBOR vadeli i\u015flemleri ve gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 (OIS) gibi ara\u00e7lar, \u201cEURIBOR\u201dun bankalar\u0131n birbirine bor\u00e7 verirken kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz oran\u0131, \u201cOIS\u201din ise gecelik faiz \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan bir faiz takas\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, ECB beklentilerini do\u011frudan yans\u0131t\u0131r. Daha \u00f6nce faizin sabit kalmas\u0131 ya da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir indirim ihtimali fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f olabilir; \u015fimdi 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) art\u0131\u015f ihtimali daha y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fclmeli. Bu senaryoda, faizlerin y\u00fckselmesine (tahvil getirilerinin artmas\u0131na) oynayan bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, yak\u0131n vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon anlam\u0131na gelebilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Euro i\u00e7in destekleyici. Daha y\u00fcksek faiz beklentisi, genelde para birimine talebi art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda, EUR\/USD call spread al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. \u201cCall spread\u201d, Euro\u2019nun y\u00fckseli\u015finden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 maliyet ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan, iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike) al\u0131m opsiyonunun birlikte kullan\u0131lmas\u0131na dayanan bir stratejidir. Ayr\u0131ca Euro paritelerinde \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (implied volatility) artmas\u0131 beklenebilir; bu kavram, opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 beklentisini ifade eder.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, 2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde enflasyon beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda alg\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi ve piyasalar\u0131n faiz beklentilerini sert bi\u00e7imde yeniden fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Nagel\u2019in vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, bug\u00fcn 2022\u2019deki enerji krizine g\u00f6re ko\u015fullar daha iyi olsa da piyasan\u0131n enflasyona duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yeni bir politika y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi riski somutla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, hisse senedi t\u00fcrevlerinde daha savunmac\u0131 bir duru\u015fu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri, Avrupa hisseleri i\u00e7in olumsuz bir unsur. Bu nedenle EURO STOXX 50 gibi endekslerde \u201cput opsiyonu\u201d al\u0131nmas\u0131, yani belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyonla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flanmas\u0131, makul bir kalkan olabilir. Maliyeti azaltmak i\u00e7in \u201cput spread\u201d de kullan\u0131labilir; bu strateji, bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir put satarak prim maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eahin Nagel\u2019den piyasa \u015foku: Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi s\u00fcrerse ECB haziranda faiz art\u0131rabilir. HICP %2,7\u2019de yap\u0131\u015fkan, Brent 95$ \u00fcst\u00fc. EURIBOR\/OIS yeniden fiyatlan\u0131r; euro g\u00fc\u00e7lenir, hissede koruma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46118"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46118\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}