John Williams, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131\u00adn\u0131n ABD ekonomisini nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fini \u015fu a\u015famada bilmenin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. ABD para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz ve likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131) belirsiz bir ekonomi i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 uygun konumda oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in iki hedefi (enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve istikrarl\u0131 olmas\u0131 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan risklerin her iki y\u00f6nde de artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ekonominin s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ko\u015fullarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011funu ifade etti. Enerji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u015fimdilik sakin olarak nitelendirirken, olumsuz senaryolar\u0131n da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) bu y\u0131l %3 civar\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 2027\u2019de %2 hedefe d\u00f6nece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Enflasyonu s\u00fcr\u00fckleyen ana unsurlar\u0131n tarifeler (ithalat vergileri) ve enerji oldu\u011funu; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 temel fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131) ise b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde istikrarl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, tarifeler kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun zamanla zay\u0131flamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Belirgin tedarik zinciri (\u00fcretim ve sevkiyat a\u011flar\u0131) aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Enflasyon beklentilerinin (halk\u0131n ve piyasalar\u0131n gelecekteki enflasyona dair \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri) kontrol alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n olumlu oldu\u011funu, Fed\u2019in g\u00f6revinin bu beklentileri sabit tutmak oldu\u011funu ekledi.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u0131l ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %2 ile %2,25 aras\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,25\u2013%4,50 band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n (istihdam ko\u015fullar\u0131) iyi dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fim oldu\u011funu, istihdam\u0131n \u201cba\u015fa ba\u015f\u201d noktas\u0131\u00adn\u0131n (i\u015fsizli\u011fi art\u0131rmadan koruyacak ayl\u0131k net istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) art\u0131k ayda 0\u201350 bin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. R-star\u2019\u0131n (ekonomiyi ne h\u0131zland\u0131ran ne yava\u015flatan, \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d faiz seviyesi) son d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerden daha y\u00fcksek olabilece\u011fini, uzun vadede Fed fonlama faizinin (bankalar\u0131n gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faizi; ABD politika faizi) %3 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011funu dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik etkileri bilinmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in belirsizlik y\u00fcksek. Enerji piyasalar\u0131nda k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryolar m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011fundan, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n petrol fiyat \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesi gerekir. WTI ham petrol\u00fc (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) zaten dalgal\u0131 seyretti ve yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; sert y\u00fckseli\u015flerden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon stratejileri (belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon inat\u00e7\u0131. Nisan ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu da bu y\u0131l %3 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i k\u0131l\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in %2 hedefe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn 2027\u2019ye sarkmas\u0131, faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadede agresif faiz indirimlerine oynama fikri zay\u0131f kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomi dayan\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda \u00e7atlaklar var. Son istihdam verisi 175 bin art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etse de i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,50\u2019ye do\u011fru y\u00fckselmesi beklentisi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile zay\u0131flama riski ta\u015f\u0131yan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma, i\u015flem sinyallerini karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
FOMC i\u00e7inde (Fed\u2019in faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurul) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 daha s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu, gelecek toplant\u0131lar\u0131n daha oynak olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu tarihler etraf\u0131ndaki dalgalanmadan faydalanan opsiyonlar daha cazip olabilir. Uzun vadeli politika faizinin %3 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim.<\/p>\n
Tedarik zinciri aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden belirmesi ve tarifelerin etkisi, izlenmesi gereken ba\u015fl\u0131ca enflasyon riskleri. Bu ortam, oynakl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon almay\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131na duyarl\u0131 stratejiler) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; \u00f6rne\u011fin VIX (piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 endeksi) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 veya b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte alma) gibi. Enflasyon beklentileri \u015fimdilik sakin olsa da riskler beklenmedik fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na do\u011fru kaym\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi piyasay\u0131 kilitledi: Williams, etkilerin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylerken Fed\u2019in duru\u015funu \u201cuygun\u201d buldu. Enflasyon %3 civar\u0131, hedef 2027; petrol \u015foku-opsiyon korunmalar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46115","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46115"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46115\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46115"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46115"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46115"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}