Euro, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi. EUR\/USD paritesi 1,1690 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,25 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 98,47 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. (DXY, dolar\u0131n euro, yen gibi ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerinden olu\u015fan bir sepete kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endekstir.) Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri, Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lgan ate\u015fkesten (kolay bozulabilen ate\u015fkes) bu yana \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan ilk kez hedef al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fuceyre\u2019de (Fujairah) bir petrol tesisinde, insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 (\u0130HA\/drone) sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yang\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi. \u0130ngiliz ordusu, BAE a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda iki y\u00fck gemisinin alev ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Fars haber ajans\u0131, iddiaya g\u00f6re Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (IRGC; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n askeri g\u00fcc\u00fc i\u00e7inde ayr\u0131 bir yap\u0131) uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Cask (Jask) yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda bir ABD deniz arac\u0131na iki f\u00fczenin isabet etti\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Axios\u2019a g\u00f6re bir ABD\u2019li yetkili, herhangi bir Amerikan gemisinin vuruldu\u011funu reddetti.<\/p>\n
Tahran, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u201cProject Freedom\u201d adl\u0131 bir deniz g\u00f6revi a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki ad\u0131mlarla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. (H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir deniz ge\u00e7ididir.) G\u00f6revin amac\u0131, su yolunda mahsur kalan gemilerin ge\u00e7i\u015fini y\u00f6nlendirmek.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, gerginlik s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e \u201cjeopolitik risk primi\u201dni korudu. (Jeopolitik risk primi, sava\u015f\/gerilim gibi riskler nedeniyle fiyatlara eklenen fazladan bedeldir.) Y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri enflasyonu (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) y\u00fckseltti ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n
CME FedWatch Tool, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %33 g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131nd\u0131. (FedWatch, piyasadaki faiz beklentilerini vadeli i\u015flemlerden hesaplayan g\u00f6stergedir.) Piyasalar en az iki ECB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; dikkatler Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls; tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki yeni istihdam\u0131 g\u00f6steren kritik veri) raporuna \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Euro, Bab el-Mendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda gemicili\u011fe y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131yla yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d dolara y\u00f6nelmesi sonucu ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda; EUR\/USD 1,0750 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. (G\u00fcvenli liman, belirsizlikte talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k\/para birimidir.) ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 104,50 \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken bu durum dolar\u0131n genel g\u00fcc\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Ortam, riskli varl\u0131klar (hisse senedi gibi dalgalanmas\u0131 y\u00fcksek yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131) i\u00e7in zorla\u015f\u0131yor ve ge\u00e7mi\u015f jeopolitik gerilim d\u00f6nemlerini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2025\u2019te ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda benzer \u015fekilde \u201cg\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d\u0131 (risk art\u0131nca daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) tetikledi\u011fi d\u00f6neme benziyor. O d\u00f6nemde jeopolitik risk primi piyasaya yans\u0131rken dolar belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015fti. Bu t\u00fcr olaylar\u0131n euro yerine dolar\u0131 desteklemesinin \u00f6nemli bir nedeni, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n enerji ithalat\u0131na (d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan enerji alma) daha ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Etki en net enerji piyasas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: Brent petrol son iki haftada %8 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. (Brent, k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlamas\u0131nda referans kabul edilen ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr.) Bu art\u0131\u015f enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; ABD \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (core CPI; enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,6 ile y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesine neden oluyor.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n zamanda faiz indirmesini (faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesini) zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; bu, bir ay \u00f6nceki beklentilere g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim. Vadeli i\u015flemler piyasalar\u0131 (gelecekteki fiyat\/ faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) art\u0131k Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %40\u2019a i\u015faret ediyor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) ise benzer enflasyonla birlikte b\u00f6lgesel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretim b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi) s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in daha zor bir konumda.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011ferini d\u00f6viz, faiz, emtia gibi ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan finansal ara\u00e7) i\u015flemcileri daha y\u00fcksek \u201coynakl\u0131k\u201d (volatilite; fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta de\u011fi\u015fmesi) beklemeli. EUR\/USD\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) %9,5\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Bu, opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rsa da \u201ckorunma\u201d (hedge; riski azaltmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan i\u015flem) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011ferini art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Eurodaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in EUR\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131 veya maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in put spread kullan\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. (Put opsiyonu, fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan; spread ise iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla maliyeti azaltan opsiyon kombinasyonudur.)<\/p>\n
Bu \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (risk-off; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan uzakla\u015fmas\u0131) e\u011filimi, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de tansiyon net bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fene kadar EUR\/USD y\u00fckseli\u015flerini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. B\u00f6lgeden gelecek haberler yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; olumlu bir geli\u015fme sert bir ters harekete yol a\u00e7abilir. Ayr\u0131ca Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD istihdam verisi, Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u015fekillendirmede kritik olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da sald\u0131r\u0131 haberleri euroyu vurdu: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman dolara ka\u00e7t\u0131. DXY g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken petrol 92 dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 artt\u0131. Fed\/ECB faiz beklentileri ve EUR\/USD oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46114","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46114"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46114\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46114"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46114"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46114"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}