\u00c7in\u2019in Nisan ay\u0131 resmi imalat PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi) 50,3 olurken, hizmetler PMI 50\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi ve in\u015faat PMI alt\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 48\u2019e geriledi. Bu tablo, i\u00e7 talebin (\u00fclke i\u00e7i t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m iste\u011finin) zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve konut ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 faaliyetlerde durgunlu\u011fun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
D\u0131\u015f talebin (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen sipari\u015flerin) faaliyeti desteklemesi bekleniyordu; k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte yapay zek\u00e2 ve yar\u0131 iletken (\u00e7ip) \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor. Sanayi \u00fcretimi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6,2\u2019ye, ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ise y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %12\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n
Sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 (makine, ekipman, fabrika, yol gibi uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mlar) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 4A-2026\u2019da (ilk 4 ay) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,6\u2019da kalaca\u011f\u0131; ekipman \u00fcretimi ve altyap\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n (yol, demiryolu, enerji \u015febekesi gibi kamu destekli projeler) bunu destekleyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyordu. Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanma beklenirken, genel yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131f kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 (\u00dcFE; firmalar\u0131n sat\u0131\u015fa konu mal fiyatlar\u0131) ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 T\u00dcFE\u2019yi (t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi bekleniyordu. Politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bu maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7 fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (genel enflasyon) y\u0131ll\u0131k %1\u2019de kalaca\u011f\u0131; enerji enflasyonundaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n g\u0131da enflasyonundaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc dengeleyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n
D\u0131\u015f talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, i\u00e7 ekonomi zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u00c7in varl\u0131klar\u0131nda (hisse, tahvil, kur gibi) dalgalanman\u0131n artmas\u0131 beklenmeli. 50,3\u2019l\u00fck imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 ihracat\u0131n etkisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrken, hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 50\u2019nin alt\u0131na inmesi ve in\u015faat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n dibine gerilemesi i\u00e7eride belirgin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da ihracata y\u00f6nelik teknoloji sekt\u00f6rlerinde uzun pozisyon (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen) al\u0131rken, emlak gibi i\u00e7 pazara ba\u011fl\u0131 alanlarda temkinli kalmay\u0131 veya k\u0131sa pozisyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel yapay zek\u00e2 ve \u00e7ip talebiyle desteklenen ihracatta y\u0131ll\u0131k %12 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi, net bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk d\u00f6neminde k\u00fcresel \u00e7ip \u015firketlerinin k\u00e2r a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n (bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n) beklentileri s\u0131k s\u0131k a\u015fmas\u0131 bu e\u011filimin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle ChiNext gibi teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endekslerde veya \u00e7ip odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) al\u0131m opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirerek bu ihracat g\u00fcc\u00fcne maruz kal\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, in\u015faat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 48\u2019e inmesiyle g\u00f6r\u00fclen emlak piyasas\u0131ndaki derinle\u015fen durgunluk, ilgili varl\u0131klarda negatif bir duru\u015fu destekliyor. Sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %1,6 ile \u00e7ok zay\u0131f kal\u0131yor; ayr\u0131ca gayrimenkul geli\u015ftiricisi Country Garden\u2019\u0131n Nisan sonunda yine kupon \u00f6demesini (tahvil faizi \u00f6demesi) ertelemesi g\u00fcveni toparlamad\u0131. Gayrimenkul ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak veya demir cevheri gibi sanayi emtialar\u0131nda vadeli i\u015flemlerde (gelecekte teslim\/uzla\u015fma i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7mak, i\u00e7 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n derinle\u015fmesine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (hedge) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Enerji maliyetleri artarken man\u015fet enflasyonun %1\u2019de zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 piyasa i\u00e7in karma\u015f\u0131k bir resim yarat\u0131yor. Brent petrol fiyat\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na yeniden 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131ksa da zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici talebi \u015firketlerin maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlara yans\u0131tmas\u0131n\u0131 engelliyor; bu da k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 (k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131) s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Bu ortam, merkez bankas\u0131na gev\u015feme i\u00e7in alan a\u00e7ar; bu da yuan\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir, ancak devlet tahvillerini destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, genel piyasa y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn belirsiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve en cazip i\u015flemin bizzat oynakl\u0131k (volatilite; fiyatlar\u0131n sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket etmesi) olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. FTSE China A50 Index gibi geni\u015f endekslerde straddle veya strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynayan stratejiler) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u00e7eli\u015fkili ekonomik dinamikler netle\u015firken her iki y\u00f6nde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7in\u2019de imalat PMI 50,3\u2019le ihracat deste\u011fiyle ayakta; hizmet ve in\u015faat PMI 50 alt\u0131, in\u015faat 48\u2019le dipte. \u0130\u00e7 talep zay\u0131f, emlak bask\u0131da; oynakl\u0131k artabilir, teknoloji uzun\/hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46113","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46113"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46113\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46113"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46113"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46113"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}