Avro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2025\u2019te %1,5\u2019ten 2026\u2019da %1,0\u2019a yava\u015flamas\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 2027\u2019de %1,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Yava\u015flama, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n di\u011fer \u00fclkelere yans\u0131yan etkilerine ba\u011flan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun 2025\u2019te %2,1, 2026\u2019da %3,0 ve 2027\u2019de %3,3 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ekonomik faaliyetin enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131na (enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani ve sert y\u00fckseli\u015flere) dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kalmas\u0131; savunma harcamalar\u0131, yapay zek\u00e2 ve elektrifikasyon (enerji kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n elektrik a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 h\u00e2le gelmesi) yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla desteklenmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) 2026\u2019da iki kez, her seferinde 25 baz puan (faiz oran\u0131nda %0,25\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f) faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u0130lk art\u0131\u015f\u0131n haziranda gelerek mevduat faizini (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 paraya uygulanan faiz) %2,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin haziranda ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yapmas\u0131 beklenirken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fckselmesine g\u00f6re pozisyon almas\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Tahvil fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde kazand\u0131ran stratejiler, \u00f6rne\u011fin Alman Bund vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri (Bund futures: Alman devlet tahviline dayal\u0131 vadeli kontrat) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, etkili olabilir. Faiz swap\u0131 (interest rate swap: sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemlerinde sabit faiz \u00f6deyip de\u011fi\u015fken faiz almak, beklenen 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa y\u00f6nelik daha do\u011frudan bir y\u00f6ntemdir.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u0131l enflasyonun %3,0\u2019a toparlanaca\u011f\u0131 tahmini, \u00f6zellikle nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc veride (flash estimate: ilk a\u00e7\u0131klanan ge\u00e7ici veri) enflasyonun %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckselmesiyle \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. Bu e\u011filim, enflasyona endeksli swaplar\u0131n (inflation-linked swaps: enflasyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7eren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) artan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6y korumas\u0131nda kullan\u0131labilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda enflasyonun beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131na benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yeniden olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131, hisse senetleri i\u00e7in zor bir ortam yarat\u0131yor; bu durum, Euro Stoxx 50 endeksinin (Avro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin \u00f6nde gelen hisselerini i\u00e7eren g\u00f6sterge endeks) y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana dalgal\u0131 seyrinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2025\u2019teki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan, geni\u015f piyasa endekslerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir. Yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile y\u00fckselen enflasyon birle\u015fimi, \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 \u00fczerinde belirgin bir bask\u0131 unsuru.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131rken di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, avroyu destekleyebilir. Nitekim EUR\/USD kuru, son iki ayda bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 beklentisiyle 1,08\u2019den 1,10 civar\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, avronun de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna ra\u011fmen g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm tamamen olumsuz de\u011fil; savunma, yapay zek\u00e2 ve elektrifikasyon yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Daha se\u00e7ici bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki belirli \u015firketlere veya ETF\u2019lere (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (derivatives: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) uzun pozisyon almak olabilir. Bu, \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem (pair trade: bir varl\u0131kta uzun, di\u011ferinde k\u0131sa pozisyonla risk dengeleme) \u015feklinde kurgulanarak, geni\u015f piyasada k\u0131sa pozisyonla (short: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefi) dengelenebilir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015fleme ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0hemen. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dikkat: Avro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi 2026\u2019da %1,0\u2019a inerken enflasyon %3,0\u2019a t\u0131rman\u0131yor. Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 riskler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; ECB\u2019den iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, tahvil\/opsiyon ve EURUSD stratejilerini g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46108"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46108\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}