Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, ge\u00e7en Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ABD ile yap\u0131lan ikili anla\u015fma kapsam\u0131nda spek\u00fclatif (k\u0131sa vadeli k\u00e2r ama\u00e7l\u0131) d\u00f6viz hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar atmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. A\u00e7\u0131klama, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BOJ) 30 Nisan\u2019da yen al\u0131m\u0131yla piyasaya m\u00fcdahale edildi\u011fini do\u011frulamas\u0131ndan iki i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fc sonra geldi.<\/p>\n
Uyar\u0131, USD\/JPY\u2019nin (dolar\/yen paritesi) 160,73 zirvesinden geriledikten sonra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 geri al\u0131p 157,00 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u0131rada yap\u0131ld\u0131. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcnden bu yana parite 157,00\u2013157,50 band\u0131nda (fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131) s\u0131k s\u0131k tak\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Katayama ayr\u0131ca Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Asya\u2019daki tedarik zincirlerine (\u00fcretim ve sevkiyat\u0131n ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu a\u011f) y\u00f6nelik risklere de\u011findi ve yenin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 imalat\u0131n rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcyle ili\u015fkilendirdi. Haberde, \u0130ran etkisiyle y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131, artan ithalat maliyetleri ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) ablukaya dair riskler yer ald\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc, piyasa i\u015flem hacminin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Alt\u0131n Hafta (Japonya\u2019daki tatil d\u00f6nemi) likiditesinin (piyasada al\u0131m-sat\u0131m kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131) daha fazla ad\u0131m i\u00e7in bir \u201cpencere\u201d olabilece\u011fi belirtilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fcnden bu yana USD\/JPY, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 hareketin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 24 saat i\u00e7inde geri ald\u0131 ancak her seferinde 157,50 yak\u0131n\u0131nda geri \u00e7evrildi. Raporda 155,50\u2019ye do\u011fru aral\u0131kl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler de anlat\u0131l\u0131yor ve 157,50\u2019nin resmi ad\u0131mlar i\u00e7in kritik bir seviye olabilece\u011fi ihtimali \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tokyo\u2019dan gelen yeni uyar\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dolar\/yen taraf\u0131nda y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n sert ve s\u0131k dalgalanmas\u0131) en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcndem olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00f6n tahmin etmek yerine sert fiyat hareketlerinden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen opsiyon stratejilerine (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle kurulan i\u015flemler) odaklanmak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bir haftal\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %15\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, 2024 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasa stresinden bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en sert art\u0131\u015flardan biri ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yeni bir ani harekete haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
157,50 seviyesi net bir tavan gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, bu b\u00f6lgenin \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131ml\u0131 (strike\/kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131: opsiyonun ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011fu fiyat seviyesi) k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satmak prim (opsiyonun pe\u015fin bedeli) geliri i\u00e7in uygulanabilir bir y\u00f6ntem olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131 da bunu destekliyor: risk reversal g\u00f6stergesi (ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu prim fark\u0131yla y\u00f6nl\u00fc talebi \u00f6l\u00e7er) bir y\u0131ldan uzun s\u00fcrenin en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u201cyen lehine\u201d e\u011filimini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: riski dengeleme) i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek bedel \u00f6dedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yani ana e\u011filim yukar\u0131 olsa da piyasa, yetkililerin m\u00fcdahale ihtimalini ciddiye al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu sert tutum, temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131 desteklemesine ra\u011fmen geliyor. ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 525 baz puan\u0131n (bps: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 525 bps = %5,25) \u00fczerinde. Ge\u00e7en hafta ABD enflasyon verilerinin y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi sinyali vermesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylece \u201cfaiz ve para politikas\u0131\u201d dinamikleri ile BOJ\u2019un do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale g\u00fcc\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya geliyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen m\u00fcdahaleler yol g\u00f6sterici olabilir; o d\u00f6nemde piyasan\u0131n anlaml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde d\u00f6nmesi i\u00e7in birka\u00e7 tur yen al\u0131m\u0131 gerekmi\u015fti. Bu, tek seferlik bir ad\u0131m de\u011fil, kur seviyeleri \u00fczerinde haftalara yay\u0131labilecek bir m\u00fccadelenin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olabilir. M\u00fcdahalenin \u201ctedarik zincirlerini koruma\u201d \u00e7er\u00e7evesiyle sunulmas\u0131, yetkililere daha uzun soluklu bir ad\u0131m dizisi i\u00e7in siyasi alan sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tokyo\u2019dan sert mesaj: Katayama, spek\u00fclatif d\u00f6viz hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 yeni m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r. USD\/JPY 157 civar\u0131nda, 157,50 kritik tavan. Oynakl\u0131k %15+; opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Petrol\/tedarik zinciri riskleri, m\u00fccadele haftalara yay\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46106"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46106\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}