GBP\/USD, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin artmas\u0131yla pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. Parite 1,3531 seviyesinde, %0,34 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran medyas\u0131 bir ABD gemisinin hedef al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazarken, Axios bir ABD\u2019li \u00fcst d\u00fczey yetkiliye dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde sald\u0131r\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. \u0130ran medyas\u0131 ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na giren ABD Donanmas\u0131 muhriplerine (sava\u015f gemisi) \u201cuyar\u0131 ate\u015fi\u201d a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri, Fabrika Sipari\u015fleri\u2019nin (imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u015firketlerin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni sipari\u015fler) martta ayl\u0131k %1,5 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu art\u0131\u015f, %0,5\u2019lik beklentinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; \u015fubatta art\u0131\u015f %0,3\u2019t\u00fc. ABD Dolar Endeksi (dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) %0,19 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 98,39\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130ngiltere piyasalar\u0131 ise resmi tatil nedeniyle kapal\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n
BAE, \u0130ran\u2019a ait bir insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 (\u0130HA) sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 petrol tesislerinde yang\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Bu haber, WTI dahil petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltti. Raporda WTI\u2019nin (ABD ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) fiyat\u0131yla ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etme e\u011filimi (pozitif ili\u015fki) oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Takvimde New York Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 John Williams\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131 ve sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ISM Hizmet PMI (hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde faaliyet ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en anket; 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eder) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Haftan\u0131n ilk iki g\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7in \u0130ngiltere\u2019den veri beklenmiyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde GBP\/USD 1,3532 civar\u0131nda ve 1,3413\u2019e yak\u0131n basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n (belirli d\u00f6nem ortalama fiyat\u0131; trendi yumu\u015fatarak g\u00f6sterir) \u00fczerinde. Diren\u00e7 (yukar\u0131 hareketin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 1,3920 ve 1,3869 b\u00f6lgesinde; destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn duraksad\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 1,3413\u2019te, ard\u0131ndan 1,3035 ve 1,2885\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda tansiyon y\u00fckselirken, piyasalarda \u201cg\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (riskli varl\u0131klardan daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6neli\u015f) klasiktir ve bu tablo ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Buras\u0131 kritik bir dar ge\u00e7ittir; d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte biri buradan ge\u00e7er. Burada ya\u015fanacak herhangi bir aksama, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d olarak talep g\u00f6rmeye devam edebilece\u011fine i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama, dolardaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi do\u011frudan besliyor. Bu ili\u015fki, ABD\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir enerji \u00fcreticisi konumunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesiyle daha belirgin hale geldi. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f on y\u0131llardaki petrol \u015foklar\u0131ndan farkl\u0131 olarak, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131k ABD ekonomisine net katk\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir ve dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir. Bu ortamda petrolde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) ve dolar\u0131 izleyen fonlarda (USD\u2019ye ba\u011fl\u0131 fonlar) benzer pozisyonlar daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, hem g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131 hem de piyasalar\u0131n kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan; bu da sat\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in kolay hedef haline getiriyor. Bu tablo 2022\u2019deki enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen bask\u0131y\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; enerji ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k para birimini zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. GBP\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi beklenebilir; 1,3413 deste\u011fini hedeflemek i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zla ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131) belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama beklenebilir; bu durum CBOE Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi\u2019ni (VIX; ABD hisse piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 14 seviyesindeki son ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu da opsiyon primlerinin (opsiyonu almak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) genel olarak pahalanmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha geni\u015f fiyat hareketlerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131 ve \u201cbeklenen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmelidir.<\/p>\n
Sal\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD ISM Hizmet PMI art\u0131k yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gereken ba\u015fl\u0131ca g\u00fcndem. 2025 boyunca gelen veriler 50 b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; benzer \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir veri, ABD ekonomisinin daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir ve Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) gev\u015femeye (faiz\/para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha destekleyici hale getirme) daha az ihtiya\u00e7 duymas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu da sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolar lehine pozisyonlara ek destek sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de tansiyon t\u0131rman\u0131yor: g\u00fcvenli liman talebi dolar lehine. GBP\/USD %0,34 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,3531\u2019de. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD fabrika sipari\u015fleri DXY\u2019yi desteklerken, petrol s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 oynakl\u0131k ve opsiyon riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46102","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46102"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46102\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46102"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46102"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46102"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}