BNP Paribas ekonomistleri, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2025\u2019teki %1,4\u2019ten 2026\u2019da %0,7\u2019ye yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. \u00c7eyreklik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin (bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fim) 1. \u00e7eyrekte beklenen +%0,4\u2019\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,1 seviyesinde seyretmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun, \u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015fla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Ard\u0131ndan 2027\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3\u2019e kademeli gerilemesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; ancak Bank of England\u2019\u0131n (\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131) hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Para politikas\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019da gev\u015femeye y\u00f6nelmek yerine 50 baz puan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. (Baz puan: Faizde %0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim; 50 baz puan = %0,50.) 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u201cgilt\u201d (Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k devlet tahvili) faizlerinin 2026\u2019da y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 2027\u2019de %4,30\u2019a gerilemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Yen ve sterlinin 2026 ve 2027\u2019de ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dengelenmesi bekleniyor. Verilen tahminler: 2026 4. \u00e7eyrek itibar\u0131yla USD\/JPY 160 ve GBP\/USD 1,35.<\/p>\n
Son d\u00f6nemde belirgin bir ekonomik yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret eden sinyaller g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130ngiltere Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019nin (ONS) son verileri 1. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yaln\u0131zca %0,2 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, martta %3,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kan kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla birlikte ya\u015fan\u0131yor; bu seviye, beklenen %3,6 zirvesine olduk\u00e7a yak\u0131n. Bu tablo, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k varl\u0131klar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 \u201ct\u00fcrev\u201d (de\u011feri d\u00f6viz, faiz, hisse gibi bir dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemlerinde \u201cstagflasyon\u201d (zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme + y\u00fcksek enflasyon) riskinin dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle piyasa art\u0131k 2025\u2019te beklenen faiz indirimlerini fiyatlam\u0131yor. Bunun yerine SONIA vadeli i\u015flemleri (SONIA: Sterlin gecelik faiz referans\u0131; vadeli i\u015flem: gelecekteki faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) y\u0131l sonuna kadar \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan en az iki adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini tamamen yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu beklenen s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnden yararlanmak i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131nda (iki taraf\u0131n faiz \u00f6demelerini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sabit faiz \u00f6deme y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere devlet tahvilleri g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, faizlerin y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt faizi \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,6 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Piyasa 2027 i\u00e7in faiz indirimlerini fiyatlamaya ba\u015flayana kadar tahvil fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in alan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerinde gilt vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015f stratejileri etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n
Yava\u015flayan ekonomik faaliyet ile y\u00fckselen faizlerin birle\u015fimi, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k hisseleri i\u00e7in zor bir ortam yarat\u0131yor. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte \u015firketlerin k\u00e2r uyar\u0131lar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 (sat\u0131\u015flardan kalan k\u00e2r oran\u0131) bask\u0131lamas\u0131yla bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Bu nedenle FTSE 100 \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almak, olas\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisine dayal\u0131 bir pozisyon olabilir.<\/p>\n
Sterlin cephesinde, zay\u0131f ekonomi ile \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi art\u0131rmaya yatk\u0131n) merkez bankas\u0131 aras\u0131nda bir \u00e7eki\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zay\u0131f olsa da daha y\u00fcksek faiz ihtimali sterline destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor; GBP\/USD i\u00e7in y\u0131l sonu hedefi 1,35. Bu da paritenin dar bantta kalabilece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla opsiyon stratejileri \u00fczerinden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n dalgalanma derecesi) satman\u0131n temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BNP Paribas uyar\u0131yor: \u0130ngiltere\u2019de stagflasyon riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme 2026\u2019da %0,7\u2019ye inerken enflasyon %3,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kabilir; BoE 50 bp s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fabilir. Giltler y\u00fcksek, sterlin 1,35 hedefi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46093","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46093","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46093"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46093\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46093"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46093"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46093"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}