ABD\u2019de fabrika sipari\u015fleri martta ayl\u0131k bazda %1,5 artt\u0131. Art\u0131\u015f, %0,5\u2019lik beklentinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Mart ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin bu veri, piyasa beklentisinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde gelerek sanayi \u00fcretim taraf\u0131n\u0131n (imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc) ekonomide d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu sonu\u00e7, ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fe girerken ekonomik faaliyetin so\u011fumaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki genel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc zorluyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) k\u0131sa vadede faiz indirimini g\u00fcndeme almas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketici enflasyonunu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) raporunda y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun %3,2 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, sanayi taraf\u0131ndaki bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131kla birlikte Fed\u2019e \u201cfaizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e veriyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede yaz bitmeden faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde azal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, sanayi ve temel malzeme sekt\u00f6rlerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Benzer s\u00fcrpriz veriler geldi\u011finde d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel hisselerde (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye duyarl\u0131 hisseler) g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fckseli\u015f gibi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sanayi ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u201ccall spread\u201d (al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek fiyattan ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti azaltan strateji) daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu \u015firketler talebin canl\u0131 kalmas\u0131ndan do\u011frudan yararlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Faiz cephesinde ise g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm netle\u015fiyor. Bu veri, tahviller i\u00e7in olumsuz senaryoyu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor: faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 iter (tahvil faizi y\u00fckselirken fiyat\u0131 genelde d\u00fc\u015fer). Buna kar\u015f\u0131, uzun vadeli ABD Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak veya Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc i\u00e7eren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) k\u0131sa pozisyon (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle a\u00e7\u0131lan pozisyon) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclerek y\u00fckselen faizlere kar\u015f\u0131 korunma ya da getiri hedeflenebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu haber ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in de destekleyici. Avrupa ve Japonya\u2019ya k\u0131yasla ABD\u2019de faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, sermaye giri\u015flerini art\u0131rabilir. Bu nedenle Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden yararlanabilecek i\u015flemler, \u00f6rne\u011fin USD\/JPY vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi), izlenebilir.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcrpriz ABD verisi: mart fabrika sipari\u015fleri %1,5 artt\u0131, beklenti %0,5\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131. \u0130malat diren\u00e7li; Fed\u2019in yazdan \u00f6nce faiz indirimi zorla\u015f\u0131yor. Tahviller bask\u0131da, dolar destekli; sanayi\/ETF call, tahvil put stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46092","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46092"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46092\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46092"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46092"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46092"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}