G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f haftaya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131; Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 73,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve %2,41 geriledi. Hareket, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve ABD Hazine tahvili faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesiyle geldi; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u00e2r realizasyonu (k\u00e2r\u0131 cebe koymak i\u00e7in sat\u0131\u015f) yapmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerilim, \u0130ran\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 devlet medyas\u0131n\u0131n bir ABD donanma gemisine do\u011fru f\u00fcze at\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirmesinin ard\u0131ndan belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD\u2019li yetkililer hi\u00e7bir geminin vurulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. ABD ticari rotalar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in deniz operasyonu ba\u015flat\u0131rken \u0130ran misilleme uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131; g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde ilerleme sa\u011flanmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ortam\u0131na ra\u011fmen talep a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak de\u011ferli metallere de\u011fil ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6neldi. Y\u00fckselen tahvil faizleri de g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fe ilgiyi azaltt\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u201cfaiz getirmeyen\u201d bir varl\u0131kt\u0131r (elde tutarken kupon\/faiz geliri \u00f6demez).<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, enflasyon riskleri nedeniyle ABD\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (y\u00fcksek faiz\/daha az kredi) daha uzun s\u00fcrmesini fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Buna olas\u0131 arz kesintilerinin enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltme etkisi de dahil. CME FedWatch arac\u0131, faiz indirimi beklentilerinin \u00f6telenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve zaman i\u00e7inde daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. (CME FedWatch, t\u00fcrev piyasa fiyatlar\u0131ndan Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri hesaplayan bir g\u00f6stergedir.)<\/p>\n
Dikkat \u015fimdi yakla\u015fan ABD verilerine \u00e7evrildi: i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ve ekonomik aktivite verileri ile Fed yetkililerinin konu\u015fmalar\u0131. Bu ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n faizlerin gelecekte izleyece\u011fi patikaya ili\u015fkin beklentileri \u015fekillendirmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 4 May\u0131s 2026\u2019da 28,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken tan\u0131d\u0131k bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2025\u2019te g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve y\u00fckselen faizlerin metali bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc strateji i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi 105,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi %4,6 civar\u0131nda tutunuyor; bu da g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi faiz getirmeyen varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7eviriyor. Fed\u2019in son toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 ve \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya yatk\u0131n) duru\u015fu teyit etti; bu da en az\u0131ndan d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar faiz indirimi beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 psikolojisine benziyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki Orta Do\u011fu gerilimlerinden farkl\u0131 olarak, bug\u00fcn piyasa kayg\u0131s\u0131 Pasifik\u2019teki ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor; bu da benzer bi\u00e7imde dolara \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebini (belirsizlikte tercih edilen varl\u0131k) art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu, jeopolitik riskin her zaman de\u011ferli metallerde otomatik y\u00fckseli\u015f anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u015eimdilik ana g\u00fcvenli liman dolar.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, uzun vadeli g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olas\u0131 ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Dolar y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse 28,00 dolar \u201cdestek\u201d seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00e7ekirdek fiziki pozisyonu bozmadan \u201chedge\u201d (koruma\/zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama) sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Daha fazla zay\u0131fl\u0131k \u00fczerine k\u0131sa vadeli pozisyon almak isteyenler i\u00e7in, 30,00 dolar\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u201ccall spread\u201d satmak (al\u0131m opsiyonu kombinasyonu; risk s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131) prim (opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f geliri) toplamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan etkili olabilir. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmaya devam ediyor; 3 ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda yakla\u015f\u0131k %22 seviyesinde. Bu da opsiyon satma stratejilerini daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu y\u00f6ntem, hem fiyat\u0131n yatay kalmas\u0131ndan hem de olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften fayda sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleniyor; oran 90:1\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve bu seviye 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn alt\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u00f6rece ucuz oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek uzun vadede f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. \u201cPairs trade\u201d (iki varl\u0131kta z\u0131t y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem; g\u00f6reli de\u011fer stratejisi) kapsam\u0131nda, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli i\u015flem (futures; ileri tarihli standart s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131p alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flem satmak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda bu oran\u0131n normale d\u00f6nmesi ihtimaline oynama yolu olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f haftaya sert sat\u0131c\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131: dolar ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz y\u00fckseli\u015fi %2,41 kay\u0131p getirdi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi dahi dolar\u0131 besliyor. 28 dolar kritik; put hedge, call spread ve alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f paritesi izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46091","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46091","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46091"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46091\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46091"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46091"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46091"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}