Commerzbank\u2019tan Michael Pfister, euronun toparlanmas\u0131 ve piyasalar\u0131n \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) beklenen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ertelemesi durumunda EUR\/CHF\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ayda y\u00fckselece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Pfister\u2019e g\u00f6re SNB, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki y\u00fckseli\u015fini yava\u015flatmak i\u00e7in tekrar eden s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirmeler (piyasaya mesaj vererek beklentileri y\u00f6netme) kullan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 SNB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi ad\u0131mlar) fiyatlamas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti; y\u0131l sonuna kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor. Pfister ise bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Pfister, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) haziranda faizi art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131, SNB\u2019nin ise faizi sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bu durum euro lehine faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 (iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki faiz oran\u0131 fark\u0131) a\u00e7ar ve bu senaryoda frang\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n cazibesini azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
SNB\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131; s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirme, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasada d\u00f6viz al\u0131p satarak kuru etkilemesi) ve sabit faizlerin birlikte kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor. Euronun son zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlara tamamen yans\u0131mas\u0131yla EUR\/CHF\u2019nin ilave 2 \u201ccentime\u201d (kurdaki yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,02\u2019lik hareket) y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Daha sonra \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyonu ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kamu maliyesi (devlet b\u00fct\u00e7esi ve bor\u00e7luluk g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc) yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131k\u00e7a frang\u0131n tekrar g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini bekliyor. Bu nedenle EUR\/CHF\u2019nin 2027\u2019ye do\u011fru yeniden kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7mesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
SNB\u2019nin stratejisi, frang\u0131 s\u00f6zl\u00fc olarak zay\u0131flatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken faizi sabit tutmak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; benzer bir tabloyu 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda da g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de nisan enflasyonu %1,4 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck geldi\u011fi i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyon %2,5 civar\u0131nda daha kal\u0131c\u0131 seyretti\u011finden ECB temkinli kal\u0131yor; bu da euro lehine faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay EUR\/CHF\u2019de olas\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in bir \u201cpencere\u201d oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 1,0000 parite seviyesine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 EUR\/CHF al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call opsiyonu: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Vade i\u00e7in 2026 A\u011fustos veya Eyl\u00fcl gibi yaz sonu tercih edilebilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, beklenen y\u00fckseli\u015fe pozisyon al\u0131rken azami riski (\u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zarar) netle\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te \u0130ran gerilimi s\u0131ras\u0131nda SNB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin h\u0131zla y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, ancak bu art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Piyasa yine y\u0131l sonuna kadar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. SNB, kuru y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finden \u00e7ok s\u00f6zl\u00fc mesajlara dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ancak bunun ge\u00e7ici bir f\u0131rsat olmas\u0131 muhtemel; frang\u0131n temel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kamu maliyesi ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon ge\u00e7mi\u015fi, zamanla sermayeyi yeniden franga \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/CHF\u2019de f\u0131rsat penceresi mi? Commerzbank\u2019a g\u00f6re ECB haziranda faiz art\u0131r\u0131rken SNB sabit kalabilir; s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirme frang\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Euro toparlan\u0131rsa parite birka\u00e7 ay 0,02 y\u00fckselir, sonra 2027\u2019ye do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46089","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46089","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46089"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46089\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46089"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46089"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46089"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}