BNP Paribas, ABD ekonomisinin 2026\u2019da %2,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini (2025\u2019te %2,1) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Banka 2026 enflasyonunu %3,3 olarak tahmin ediyor; petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve **g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifeleri** (ithalata ek vergi) nedeniyle enflasyonun 2028\u2019e kadar hedefin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
**Fed Funds hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n** (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bankalar aras\u0131 gecelik faiz i\u00e7in belirledi\u011fi politika faizi aral\u0131\u011f\u0131) %3,5\u2013%3,75 seviyesinde kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Tahmin, **Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi\u2019nin (FOMC)** (Fed\u2019in faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurul) \u201c**iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm**\u201de ge\u00e7mesini de i\u00e7eriyor; bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, gerekti\u011finde faizi art\u0131rmaya da indirmeye de haz\u0131r olundu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
BNP Paribas, baz senaryosunda ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kademeli olarak zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Banka bu senaryoyu, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da kademeli normalle\u015fme ve s\u00fcren fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Banka, EUR\/USD paritesinin (1 euro\u2019nun ka\u00e7 dolar etti\u011fini g\u00f6steren kur) 2026 4. \u00e7eyrekte 1,21 ve 2027 4. \u00e7eyrekte 1,25 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Makalede, i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir **yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131** ile haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l potansiyelinin (ekonominin enflasyon yaratmadan s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131) \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %2,4\u2019e gitti\u011fi ifade ediliyor. 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek verileri de bu g\u00fcc\u00fc teyit etti; y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (\u00e7eyreklik verinin y\u0131l geneline \u00e7evrilmi\u015f hali) b\u00fcy\u00fcme %2,6 oldu. Bu ivme, ekonominin mevcut faiz d\u00fczeyini rahat\u00e7a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun ise inat\u00e7\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve bu y\u0131l ortalama %3,3\u2019te kalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi belirtiliyor; bu durum 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131nda da enflasyonun hedefin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu nedenle Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesinin zor oldu\u011fu, y\u0131l\u0131n kalan\u0131nda Fed Funds hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %3,5\u2013%3,75\u2019te sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, dolar\u0131n euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kademeli zay\u0131flamas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. ABD ekonomisinin \u00fcst\u00fcn performans\u0131 daha az belirgin hale gelirken ve \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme ama\u00e7l\u0131 sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u00fcrerken, dolar\u0131n cazibesinin yava\u015f yava\u015f azalaca\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Y\u0131l sonu EUR\/USD hedefi 1,21 olarak veriliyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u015fu anda 1,1850 civar\u0131nda olan EUR\/USD\u2019de yava\u015f ama istikrarl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisine g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Euroda **uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call)** (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak, beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanman\u0131n bir yolu olabilir. Piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131, bu opsiyonlar\u0131n \u015fu an \u00e7ok pahal\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle, faizde belirgin hareket olmamas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejiler de de\u011ferlendirilebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin **SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131** (faiz referans\u0131 olan SOFR\u2019a dayal\u0131 vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerde, ayn\u0131 anda farkl\u0131 seviyelerden al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p fiyat\u0131n dar bantta kalmas\u0131na oynanan strateji). \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in ana mesaj, euroda ani bir s\u0131\u00e7rama de\u011fil, sab\u0131rl\u0131 ve kademeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BNP Paribas\u2019tan dikkat \u00e7eken senaryo: ABD 2026\u2019da %2,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken enflasyon g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifeleri ve petrol ile %3,3\u2019te diren\u00e7li; Fed %3,5\u2013%3,75\u2019te kal\u0131r, dolar zay\u0131flar, EUR\/USD 1,21\u2019e gider.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46086","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46086","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46086"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46086\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46086"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46086"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46086"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}