TD Securities, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) politika faizi olan Gecelik Faiz Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Overnight Rate) 2026 boyunca %2,25\u2019te tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Kurum, 2027 ba\u015f\u0131nda \u201cn\u00f6tr faiz\u201d olan %2,75\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f bekliyor; bu ge\u00e7i\u015fin ocak ve mart aylar\u0131nda her seferinde 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bp: y\u00fczde 0,25 puan) iki art\u0131\u015fla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n
Politika metni hafif \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya isteksiz) bir tondayd\u0131 ve zay\u0131flayan ticaret ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n ek faiz indirimlerine yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Metin ayr\u0131ca artan jeopolitik risklerin pe\u015f pe\u015fe faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilece\u011fini belirtti; bu da piyasalarda k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentilerinin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel ham petrol arz\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tehditler \u201cenflasyon \u015foku\u201d (fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 yukar\u0131 iten beklenmedik etki) olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. Tahmin, karar al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n jeopolitik riskler ve bunlar\u0131n yurt i\u00e7i T\u00dcFE\u2019ye (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) etkisi netle\u015fene kadar bekleyebilece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun 2. \u00e7eyrekte yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 ile zirve yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu seviye Banka\u2019n\u0131n nisan Para Politikas\u0131 Raporu\u2019ndaki tahminlerin \u00fczerinde. Ayr\u0131ca enflasyon beklentilerinin \u201ciyi \u00e7\u0131palanm\u0131\u015f\u201d (hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin orta vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinin kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131) kalaca\u011f\u0131, enflasyonun genele yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n daha zay\u0131f olaca\u011f\u0131 ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon e\u011filiminin (ge\u00e7ici kalemlerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tahmin, 2027 ba\u015f\u0131nda %2,75\u2019e iki art\u0131\u015fa revize edildi; \u00f6nceki tahmin \u00fc\u00e7 art\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda BoC\u2019nin gecelik faizini %2,25\u2019te tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, Banker’s Acceptance vadeli i\u015flemlerine (k\u0131sa vadeli banka bor\u00e7lanma faizine dayal\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Biz ise Banka\u2019n\u0131n, son piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen temkinli kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Artan jeopolitik gerilim, WTI ham petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak belirgin bir enflasyon \u015foku yaratt\u0131. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE martta %2,9 gelse de, CPI-trim gibi \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergeler (u\u00e7 fiyat hareketlerini budayarak daha \u201ctemiz\u201d e\u011filim \u00f6l\u00e7en kalemler) yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,1 civar\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 kald\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, temel fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n Banka\u2019y\u0131 hemen faiz art\u0131rmaya zorlayacak kadar geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, Banka\u2019n\u0131n man\u015fet enflasyondaki ge\u00e7ici s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 \u201cg\u00f6rmezden gelebilmesine\u201d (ge\u00e7ici etkiyi politika tepkisine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmemesine) imk\u00e2n veriyor. Enflasyon beklentilerinin kontrol alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, karar al\u0131c\u0131lara daha fazla netlik olu\u015fana kadar bekleme alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle 2026\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in e\u015fik, piyasan\u0131n ima etti\u011finden daha y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bizim g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz ile piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark, Kanada getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa vadeli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n (yak\u0131n vadeli tahvil faizleri b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc) gere\u011finden dik oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131) ve sabit gecelik faizden fayda sa\u011flayan opsiyon stratejileri, \u00f6rne\u011fin k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde straddle satmak (ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p prim geliri hedeflemek) avantajl\u0131 olabilir. Bu pozisyon, Banka\u2019n\u0131n piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yak\u0131n) bir s\u00fcrpriz yapmayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
N\u00f6tr faize d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc 2027 ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131n konusu olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; o d\u00f6nemde iki kademeli 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz. Yak\u0131n vadede bu, Banka\u2019n\u0131n oynak enerji fiyatlar\u0131na tepki vermektense istikrar\u0131 \u00f6nceleyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon \u015foku fiyatlamay\u0131 sallad\u0131: TD Securities, BoC\u2019nin faizi 2026 boyunca %2,25\u2019te tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d %2,75\u2019e 2027 ba\u015f\u0131nda iki kez 25 bp art\u0131\u015fla d\u00f6nece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46084","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46084","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46084"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46084\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46084"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46084"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46084"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}