Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde \u015firket ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni Nisan\u2019da beklentiden daha fazla geriledi. Komisyonun Ekonomik G\u00fcven Endeksi 5 y\u0131l\u0131n, t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni ise 3 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor (bankalar kredi vermeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor) ve i\u00e7 talep (\u00fclke i\u00e7i harcamalar) zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Buna ra\u011fmen, \u00f6nc\u00fc 1\u00c7 GSYH verisi Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisinin \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Almanya %0,3, \u0130spanya %0,6 ve \u0130talya %0,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, Fransa yatay kald\u0131; \u0130rlanda GSYH\u2019si \u00e7eyreklik bazda %2 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki verilerin Nisan\u2019da ivmenin (ekonomik h\u0131z\u0131n) zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi bekleniyor; \u00f6zellikle hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde. Mart perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yeniden daralabilir; Almanya\u2019da perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ayl\u0131k bazda %2 geriledi.<\/p>\n
Almanya\u2019da Mart fabrika sipari\u015fleri, sanayi \u00fcretimi ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret edebilir; g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm enerji fiyat \u015fokundan (enerji maliyetlerindeki ani sert art\u0131\u015f) etkileniyor. Fransa\u2019da sanayi \u00fcretimi ge\u00e7ici olabilecek bir toparlanma g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n
Hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 (varl\u0131k ve bor\u00e7lar\u0131n genel durumu) sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. Yapay zek\u00e2, enerji ve savunma ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ile Almanya\u2019n\u0131n mali te\u015fviki (kamu harcamas\u0131\/vergi ad\u0131mlar\u0131yla destek) faaliyeti destekleyebilecek unsurlar aras\u0131nda g\u00f6steriliyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in piyasa g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ikiye ayr\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u015eirket ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni Nisan\u2019da beklentiden fazla gerilerken, Avrupa Komisyonu\u2019nun Ekonomik G\u00fcven G\u00f6stergesi 95,5 ile 5 y\u0131l\u0131n dibine indi. Ancak bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k \u201ckesin\u201d verilere (anket de\u011fil, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen \u00fcretim\/sat\u0131\u015f gibi veriler) tam yans\u0131mad\u0131; ekonomi ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte %0,1 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 gelecekteki b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli risk. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son anketine g\u00f6re bankalar\u0131n net %15\u2019i \u015firketlere kulland\u0131r\u0131lan kredilerde standartlar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131 (krediye eri\u015fimi zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131). 2023\u2019te de benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 frenlemi\u015fti; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda i\u00e7 talebin zarar g\u00f6rebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu ortamda, yava\u015flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in t\u00fcketiciye ba\u011fl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan hak) almak daha temkinli bir tercih olabilir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan, daha sert bir gerilemeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tamponlar var; \u00f6rne\u011fin \u015firket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flam olmas\u0131 ve belirli yat\u0131r\u0131m e\u011filimleri. Yapay zek\u00e2, enerji ve \u00f6zellikle savunma alanlar\u0131na sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n 100 milyar euroluk fonu h\u00e2l\u00e2 devrede ve sanayiyi destekliyor. Bu da, genel t\u00fcketici zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak Avrupa savunma ve havac\u0131l\u0131k endekslerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan hak) ile yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyel sunabilir.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f g\u00fcven ile baz\u0131 alanlardaki ger\u00e7ek g\u00fc\u00e7 aras\u0131ndaki bu \u00e7eli\u015fki belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor ve 2022\u2019de g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz oynak (h\u0131zl\u0131 ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) piyasa d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. VSTOXX oynakl\u0131k endeksi (Euro Stoxx 50 i\u00e7in beklenen dalgalanma g\u00f6stergesi) \u015fu anda 18 civar\u0131nda; kriz d\u00f6nemi zirvelerinin alt\u0131nda olsa da bu gerilimi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Euro Stoxx 50\u2019de straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 fiyattan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketten iki y\u00f6nde de faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyen strateji) gibi y\u00f6ntemlerle piyasan\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne k\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde g\u00fcven sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: ESI 5 y\u0131l, t\u00fcketici 3 y\u0131l\u0131n dibinde. Kredi \u015fartlar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor, i\u00e7 talep zay\u0131f. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n 1\u00c7 GSYH %0,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc; opsiyonda put, savunmada call\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46083","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46083","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46083"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46083\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46083"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46083"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46083"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}