RBA, y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc politika toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yar\u0131n yap\u0131yor ve tahminlerin \u00e7o\u011fu bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bloomberg\u2019in 28 ekonomistle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ankette 27\u2019si faizin **25 baz puan** art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor, 1\u2019i de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131 (gelecekteki faiz seviyesine dair fiyatlanan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %75 g\u00f6steriyor. Yine de daha \u00f6nceki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131, mart verilerindeki yumu\u015fama ve kurul i\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d karar\u0131 (faizi art\u0131rmadan sabit tutma) m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n
Mart enflasyonu %4,6 oldu; bu oran RBA\u2019nin %2\u20133 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Enerji hari\u00e7 bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da enflasyon hedefin \u00fcst\u00fcnde kal\u0131yor. Melbourne Institute anketlerine g\u00f6re enflasyon beklentisi %5,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi; bu, y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re 1 puandan fazla art\u0131\u015f demek.<\/p>\n
Mart enflasyon verilerinde **ikinci tur etkiler** (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccretlere, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden fiyatlara yans\u0131yarak enflasyonu kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131) net g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi. Ancak y\u00fckselen enflasyon beklentileri, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda bu riskin artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Son konu\u015fmalar, RBA \u00fcyelerinin son faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sonra ortalama olarak daha **\u015fahin** bir dil kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u015eahin; daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, yani faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 e\u011filimi demektir. \u00d6nceki faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi ise **reel ekonomi**ye (\u00fcretim, t\u00fcketim, istihdam gibi ger\u00e7ek faaliyetlere) zamanla yans\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde fiyatl\u0131yor. Vadeli i\u015flemler, ilave 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %75 olarak yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn temelinde, enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 ve merkez bankas\u0131ndan gelen \u015fahin mesajlar var.<\/p>\n
Son veriler bu \u015fahin tabloyu destekliyor. Nisan 2026\u2019ya ait ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE g\u00f6stergesi %4,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek enflasyonun hen\u00fcz kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 da %3,9 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; bu, RBA\u2019ye ekonominin ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 kald\u0131rabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00fcven verebilir. Bu tablo, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin 2023\u2019te kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele etti\u011fi d\u00f6neme benziyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek olsa da s\u00fcrpriz bir \u201cpas\u201d ihtimali g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. RBA\u2019nin \u00f6nceki iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n etkisi hen\u00fcz reel ekonomiye tam yans\u0131mad\u0131. Kurul, perakende sat\u0131\u015flarda zay\u0131flamay\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek beklemeyi tercih ederse, bu durum piyasay\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesinde Avustralya dolar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyattaki dalgalanma) piyasada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, k\u0131sa vadeli AUD\/USD **opsiyon**lar\u0131yla (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynayabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin **straddle** (ayn\u0131 vade ve fiyattan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma stratejisi) ile kurun hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z, hareketin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden faydalanmak hedeflenir. Risk dengesi asimetrik: s\u00fcrpriz bir \u201cpas\u201d karar\u0131, beklenen art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe k\u0131yasla Avustralya dolar\u0131nda daha sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz **vadeli i\u015flemleri** (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc i\u00e7eren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) taraf\u0131nda ise mevcut fiyatlama zaten beklenen art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. \u201cFaiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yok\u201d senaryosundan faydalanan bir pozisyon, \u00f6rne\u011fin Avustralya 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerini almak, daha iyi risk-getiri sunabilir. RBA pas ge\u00e7erse, faizler (tahvil getirileri) d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi i\u00e7in bu s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin fiyat\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckselir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler yar\u0131nki RBA karar\u0131nda: Bloomberg anketinde 27\/28 ekonomist 25 bp art\u0131\u015f bekliyor, vadeli piyasada olas\u0131l\u0131k %75. Enflasyon ve \u015fahin mesajlar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; s\u00fcrpriz \u201cpas\u201d AUD\u2019de sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riski art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46081","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46081"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46081\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}