Alt\u0131n Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve Avrupa seans\u0131nda 4.550 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasalarda fiyat 4.550 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inerken, 4.500 dolar civar\u0131 destek (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ferken tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ni Umman Denizi\u2019ne ba\u011flayan kritik enerji ge\u00e7idi) merkezli artan gerilim, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi ve alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, bo\u011fazda engellenen gemilerin serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir plan bulundu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi ancak ayr\u0131nt\u0131 vermedi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, su yolunun kapal\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgede ataca\u011f\u0131 herhangi bir askeri ad\u0131m\u0131n ate\u015fkes ihlali say\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. \u0130ran, \u201ctam g\u00fc\u00e7le\u201d kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
4 saatlik grafikte G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m durumunu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 36 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama\/Iraksama: trendin y\u00f6n\u00fc ve momentumunu g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) ise negatif b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, nisan ortas\u0131ndaki zirvelerden bu yana k\u0131sa vadeli e\u011filimin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bir sonraki destek b\u00f6lgesi, 29 Nisan dibi olan 4.510 dolar ile mart sonundaki 4.500 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131ndaki dipler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. Bunun alt\u0131nda hedefler, 26 Mart dibi olan 4.350 dolar civar\u0131 ve 23 Mart dibi olan 4.100 dolar seviyeleri.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde ise diren\u00e7 (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselirken zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 4.660 dolar zirvesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; nisan ortas\u0131 zirveleri ise 4.900 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi; bu, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda kaydedilen en y\u00fcksek al\u0131m.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa, burada alt\u0131na, ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejileri g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Alt\u0131n vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) veya ilgili ETF\u2019ler (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, 4.500 dolar hedefine y\u00f6nelik hareketten do\u011frudan faydalanman\u0131n bir yolu olabilir. \u0130lk maliyeti azaltmak i\u00e7in ay\u0131 put spread (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyet i\u00e7in bir put al\u0131p ba\u015fka bir put satma stratejisi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir ve hedef belirli bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 seviye ile s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc senaryoyu destekleyen bir unsur da nisan ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI: enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) verisinin, enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) %2,9\u2019a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi oldu. Bu, alt\u0131n\u0131 enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (hedge: riski dengeleme ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyon) arac\u0131 olarak tutma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor ve sat\u0131c\u0131lara alan a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu tablo, 2025 boyunca piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131na h\u00e2kim olan enflasyon endi\u015felerine g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin verilerine g\u00f6re, merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u00fcrse de 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki rekor tempoya k\u0131yasla yava\u015flad\u0131. En b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n talebindeki bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zay\u0131flama, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir destek unsurunu azalt\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBoC), 18 ay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ayl\u0131k al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Dolar ile alt\u0131n aras\u0131ndaki klasik ters ili\u015fki (dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenince alt\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 e\u011filimi) yeniden belirginle\u015fiyor. Bu durum, 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda k\u00fcresel resesyon (ekonominin daralmas\u0131) endi\u015feleri nedeniyle iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n birlikte y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerle z\u0131tl\u0131k g\u00f6steriyor. ABD ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesiyle dolar, g\u00fcvenli liman (krizde talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, nisan sonundaki dip seviye olan 4.510 dolar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemeli. Bu deste\u011fin net \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, psikolojik 4.500 dolar seviyesinin (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yak\u0131ndan takip etti\u011fi yuvarlak rakam) h\u0131zl\u0131 test edilmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tepki hareketleri 4.660 dolar civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilir; bu da yeni k\u0131sa pozisyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan i\u015flem) arayanlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zilleri: Alt\u0131n 4.550 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131, 4.500 kritik destek. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken RSI 36, MACD negatif. 4.510 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 4.350-4.100 hedef; 4.660 diren\u00e7, put stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46077","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46077","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46077"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46077\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46077"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46077"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46077"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}