Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun y\u00fckseldi\u011fine dair haberlerle artt\u0131. ABD tipi ham petrol (WTI), 103,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 y\u00fckseldi. Brent ise 112 dolara \u00e7\u0131karak %4,1 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Fars Haber Ajans\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir ABD sava\u015f gemisinin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 dikkate almad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gerek\u00e7esiyle iki f\u00fczeyle hedef al\u0131n\u0131p vuruldu\u011funu bildirdi. \u0130ran devlet televizyonu da geminin ard\u0131ndan geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve bo\u011faza girmedi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Burada ilk ad\u0131m, bu haberlerin do\u011frulanmas\u0131. \u0130lk man\u015fetler \u00e7o\u011fu zaman piyasada a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepkiye yol a\u00e7ar. Petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (piyasadaki fiyatlardan hesaplanan beklenen sert fiyat hareketi) muhtemelen h\u0131zla y\u00fckselir. Bu durumda \u201cal\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) sat\u0131n almak pahal\u0131la\u015f\u0131r; yine de fiyatlar daha da sert y\u00fckselirse y\u00fcksek getiri sa\u011flayabilir. Benzerini 2022\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131nda Ukrayna i\u015fgalinden sonra g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck; CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX: petrol opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde iki kattan fazla artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
As\u0131l risk H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131. Buras\u0131 k\u00fcresel enerji ticaretinde \u201cdar bo\u011faz\u201d (chokepoint: alternatif ge\u00e7i\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kritik ge\u00e7it) konumunda. EIA\u2019n\u0131n (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) son verilerine g\u00f6re ge\u00e7en y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil, yani k\u00fcresel g\u00fcnl\u00fck t\u00fcketimin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si buradan ge\u00e7ti. Tam ya da k\u0131smi kapanma, piyasadan \u00e7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede b\u00fcy\u00fck bir arz\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n
Brent ve WTI \u201cvadeli fiyat e\u011frilerini\u201d (forward curve: farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki fiyatlar\u0131n dizilimi) izlemek gerekecek. K\u0131sa vadeli kontratlar\u0131n uzun vadelilerden daha pahal\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u201cters piyasa\u201d (backwardation) belirginle\u015febilir; bu da yak\u0131n vadede ciddi arz endi\u015fesi anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu, k\u00fcresel stoklar\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar zaten s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 azal\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde daha da hassas. En yak\u0131n vade ile alt\u0131 ay vadeli kontrat aras\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131, panik i\u015fareti olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6stergedir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, 2019\u2019da Suudi tesislerine sald\u0131r\u0131larda da fiyatlar ilk anda sert s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015f, \u00fcretim geri gelince iki hafta i\u00e7inde y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. E\u011fer bu durum kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u201cabluka\u201d (uzun s\u00fcreli ge\u00e7i\u015f engeli) olmadan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rsa, bu ralli k\u0131sa s\u00fcrebilir. Bu nedenle, netle\u015fme gelene kadar do\u011frudan uzun vadeli kontrat ta\u015f\u0131mak yerine \u201ccall spread\u201d kullanmak daha temkinli olabilir (call spread: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren, kazan\u00e7 ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde Orta Do\u011fu \u015foku: \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de ABD gemisini vurdu\u011fu iddias\u0131yla WTI 103,5$\u2019a, Brent 112$\u2019a f\u0131rlad\u0131. Kritik e\u015fik bo\u011faz\u0131n kapanmas\u0131; oynakl\u0131k, backwardation ve call spread radar\u0131n\u0131zda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46074","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46074","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46074"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46074\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46074"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46074"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46074"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}