EUR\/JPY pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 184,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; Euro B\u00f6lgesi verileri Euro\u2019yu desteklerken, Yen de g\u00fcvenli liman (risk art\u0131nca talep g\u00f6ren para birimi) talebiyle g\u00fc\u00e7 buldu\u011fu i\u00e7in parite %0,04 geriledi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi S&P Global \u0130malat PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme anlam\u0131na gelir) nisan ay\u0131nda 52,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sentix Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 G\u00fcveni (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en anket) may\u0131sta -19,2\u2019den -16,4\u2019e iyile\u015fti, ancak h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fclke i\u00e7i g\u00f6stergesi zay\u0131flad\u0131; bu da blok i\u00e7inde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn e\u015fitsiz oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir duru\u015f sinyali verdi. Peter Kazimir, enerji dahil enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle haziranda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse kesin oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. ECB\u2019nin Profesyonel Tahminciler Anketi (piyasa uzmanlar\u0131n\u0131n beklentileri) enflasyonun bu y\u0131l ortalama %2,7 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve tekrar %2\u2019ye yakla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi 2026 i\u00e7in %1 tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta faizler sabit tutulduktan sonra g\u00f6zler, yakla\u015fan ECB yetkilisi konu\u015fmalar\u0131nda. Japonya\u2019da Yen, USD\/JPY 160,00\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan ve i\u015flem kal\u0131plar\u0131 olas\u0131 resm\u00ee m\u00fcdahaleye i\u015faret ettikten sonra destek buldu.<\/p>\n
Reuters, BoJ\u2019un (Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131) kurdaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 5,48 trilyon JPY harcam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini yazd\u0131; Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorum yapmad\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda aksama riski Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutuyor ve belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. ABD\u2019nin deniz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi plan\u0131na piyasa tepkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rken, \u0130ran\u2019la s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Japon yetkililerin 2025\u2019te Yen\u2019i savunmak i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleler (merkez bankas\u0131\/kurumlar\u0131n piyasaya d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131yla y\u00f6n verme giri\u015fimi) ge\u00e7ici bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda BoJ yakla\u015f\u0131k 5,5 trilyon yen harcad\u0131; ancak USD\/JPY 170\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyrederken, faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 politika faizi fark\u0131) yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel zay\u0131fl\u0131k yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yeni m\u00fcdahale riski s\u00fcrse de etkinli\u011fi daha fazla sorgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma ana belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor: ECB\u2019nin ana faizi %4,25 iken BoJ %0,1 seviyesinde. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck getiri fark\u0131, EUR\/JPY\u2019de uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 \u201ccarry\u201d (faiz fark\u0131ndan g\u00fcnl\u00fck\/ta\u015f\u0131ma getirisi elde etme) nedeniyle cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor ve sermaye \u00e7ekiyor. Bu geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e e\u011filimin devam etmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019dan gelebilecek yeni m\u00fcdahalelerin yaratabilece\u011fi ani sert geri \u00e7ekilme riskine kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyonlarla (belirli bir tarihe kadar, \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7) pozisyon y\u00f6netimi \u00f6nemli. EUR\/JPY\u2019de ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek; bir ayl\u0131k opsiyonlar belirgin hareketi fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu ortamda straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte alma; y\u00f6n de\u011fil hareket b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne oynar) gibi stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Y\u00f6n beklentisi olanlar i\u00e7in EUR\/JPY\u2019de al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) almak veya bull call spread (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren y\u00fckseli\u015f stratejisi) kullanmak, y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken maksimum riski netle\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/JPY 184,00\u2019e yak\u0131n; Euro B\u00f6lgesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc PMI ve Sentix Euro\u2019yu desteklese de g\u00fcvenli liman Yen talebiyle hafif geriledi. ECB \u015fahinle\u015fiyor, BoJ-m\u00fcdahale riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; carry cazip, oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46070","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46070","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46070"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46070\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46070"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46070"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46070"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}