UOB, ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131, 11 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ise tek seferlik 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bp; faizde 0,25 puan) bir art\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Banka; s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 (i\u015fsizli\u011fin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, i\u015fe al\u0131m talebinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131) ve mali tamponlar\u0131n (kamu maliyesinde manevra alan\u0131) ekonominin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
UOB, Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun 2026\u2019n\u0131n 4. \u00e7eyre\u011finde %3,0\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak zirve yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 2027\u2019de %2,0\u2019nin alt\u0131na gerileyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Nisan ay\u0131nda \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak anketlerin \u015firketler ve hanehalk\u0131nda fiyat beklentilerinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini; bunun da enflasyonu daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ekonomik faaliyeti bask\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor, ancak b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki etkinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Enflasyondaki ana bask\u0131 kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve orta vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc; enerji \u015fokunun (enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani y\u00fckseli\u015fin) b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve s\u00fcresi ile dolayl\u0131 etkiler ve ikinci tur etkiler (ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccretlere ve di\u011fer fiyatlara yay\u0131lmas\u0131) \u00fczerine ba\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
UOB, risk dengesinin bu y\u0131l bir kez daha s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ad\u0131m\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirtiyor. Ayr\u0131ca politika patikas\u0131n\u0131n (faizlerin izleyece\u011fi yolun) belirsiz oldu\u011funu ve emtia piyasas\u0131ndaki (petrol, gaz gibi hammaddeler) fiyat hareketlerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde ba\u011fl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekliyor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut durumda, 11 Haziran\u2019da ECB\u2019den tek seferlik 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in Nisan 2026 \u00f6nc\u00fc enflasyon tahmini (ay ortas\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan ilk veri) %2,7 geldi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan %6,5\u2019te kalmas\u0131yla ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in alan\u0131 oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu yakla\u015fan art\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerine (yak\u0131n vade faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) zaten fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Esas f\u0131rsat, Haziran sonras\u0131nda ne olaca\u011f\u0131. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor; bu da ikinci bir art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Ekonominin bu tek art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kald\u0131rabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclse de enerji risklerinin ECB\u2019nin daha fazlas\u0131na iste\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alan t\u00fcrev i\u015flemlerin (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) cazip olabilece\u011fi s\u00f6yleniyor; \u00f6rnek olarak Aral\u0131k 2026 Euribor vadeli i\u015flemlerini satmak veriliyor (Euribor: Euro cinsi bankalar aras\u0131 referans faiz).<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ECB\u2019nin 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeki temkinli beklemesinin, k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortam\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmadan ka\u00e7\u0131nma iste\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi belirtiliyor. Bu ba\u011flam, Haziran art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yeni ve sert bir faiz d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan \u00e7ok, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyona d\u00f6n\u00fck s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir ayarlama olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, Haziran sonras\u0131 piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi kadar y\u00fckseli\u015f olmayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla, sabit faiz al\u0131c\u0131 faiz swap\u0131 (swap: taraflar\u0131n faiz \u00f6demelerini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme; \u201csabit faiz almak\u201d, piyasa faizlerinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle tercih edilir) gibi yap\u0131lar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Belirsizli\u011fin \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden artan gerilimin Brent petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Bunun toplant\u0131da s\u00fcrpriz politika hamlesi riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu nedenle opsiyon stratejilerinin (opsiyon: belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6yleniyor. Euro Stoxx 50 veya EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte al\u0131n\u0131r; ama\u00e7 y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin sert hareketten kazan\u00e7 elde etmek) ile volatilite (fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) sat\u0131n alman\u0131n, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden fayda sa\u011flayabilece\u011fi aktar\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tek seferlik bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00f6zellikle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyali verirse, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda g\u00fcvercin (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda isteksiz, daha destekleyici) alg\u0131lanabilir. ECB\u2019nin 11 Haziran a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ek art\u0131\u015f planlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frularsa Euro zay\u0131flayabilir. Bu durumda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 EUR\/USD kurunda olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyonlarla pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar kritik ECB karar\u0131na kilitlendi: UOB, 11 Haziran\u2019da tek seferlik 25 bp art\u0131\u015f bekliyor. Enflasyon 2026 sonlar\u0131nda %3+ zirve, 2027\u2019de %2 alt\u0131; enerji\/petrol riski belirleyici, opsiyonlar ve t\u00fcrevler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46067","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46067"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46067\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46067"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46067"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46067"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}