Yapay zeka altyap\u0131s\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n 2027\u2019ye kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1 trilyon dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Morgan Stanley\u2019e g\u00f6re ABD\u2019li \u201chiper \u00f6l\u00e7ekli\u201d teknoloji \u015firketleri (dev bulut sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131) yaln\u0131zca 2026\u2019da 800 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde **sermaye harcamas\u0131 (capex: \u015firketlerin veri merkezi, \u00e7ip, sunucu, elektrik altyap\u0131s\u0131 gibi uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mlara ay\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e)** yapacak.<\/p>\n
800 milyar dolarl\u0131k tutar\u0131n, S&P 500\u2019de teknoloji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcm \u015firketlerin bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplam harcamaya yakla\u015f\u0131k denk oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Bu tutar\u0131n 2025 seviyesinin neredeyse iki kat\u0131na, 2024\u2019\u00fcn ise \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 etkili olsa da ana s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc; daha fazla \u00e7ip, daha fazla elektrik, daha fazla bellek ve daha fazla i\u015flem g\u00fcc\u00fc ihtiyac\u0131. D\u00f6rt y\u0131lda \u00e7ip, bellek ve \u201ck\u00fcme hesaplama\u201dn\u0131n (bir\u00e7ok sunucunun birlikte tek sistem gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) kapasitesinin 4 ila 7 kat artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Google, dakikada 16 milyar \u201ctoken\u201d (yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n metni k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck par\u00e7alara b\u00f6lerek i\u015fledi\u011fi birimler) i\u015fledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; bu, bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re %60 art\u0131\u015f demek. Daha b\u00fcy\u00fck kapasiteli model e\u011fitiminin, son d\u00f6nemdeki capex\u2019in \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r sistemlere ve gelire ne kadar iyi d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc test etmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu yat\u0131r\u0131m dalgas\u0131 yar\u0131 iletken hisselerini desteklerken, bor\u00e7la finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 da art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u201cYat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviye\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck riskli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, kredi notu y\u00fcksek \u015firketlerin) tahvil ihra\u00e7lar\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde \u00f6nde; ayr\u0131ca bor\u00e7lanman\u0131n vadesi daha ileri tarihlere kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00fcksek capex gelirleri destekleyebilir; ancak kredi piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczenli yeni tahvil arz\u0131n\u0131 sindirmesi gerekir. Bu arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u201cspread\u201dleri (\u015firket tahvili faizi ile g\u00fcvenli kabul edilen devlet tahvili faizi aras\u0131ndaki fark) bask\u0131layabilir. Harcama h\u0131z keserse, etki kredi dahil bir\u00e7ok riskli varl\u0131\u011fa yay\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Yapay zeka altyap\u0131s\u0131 yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 sadece s\u00fcrm\u00fcyor; 2026 ortas\u0131na do\u011fru h\u0131zlan\u0131yor. Nisan\u2019daki 1\u00c7 finansal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hiper \u00f6l\u00e7ekli \u015firketlerin capex y\u00f6nlendirmeleri yeniden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131 ve bu ana temay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda stratejilerin bu yo\u011fun harcama d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131yla uyumlu olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
En do\u011frudan yakla\u015f\u0131m, ana faydalan\u0131c\u0131larda pozitif tarafta kalmak; ba\u015fta yar\u0131 iletken sekt\u00f6r\u00fc. Yar\u0131 \u0130letken Sanayi Birli\u011fi\u2019nin 1 May\u0131s\u2019ta a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilere g\u00f6re 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde k\u00fcresel \u00e7ip sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %25\u2019in \u00fczerinde artt\u0131; bu da talebin somut oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Riskin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve yukar\u0131 potansiyelin korundu\u011fu bir yap\u0131 i\u00e7in yar\u0131 iletken ETF\u2019lerinde \u201ccall spread\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satma stratejisi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc do\u011frudan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131, y\u00fcksek \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) nedeniyle pahal\u0131 kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan bu harcama, dengesiz bir risk profili yarat\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131m b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yo\u011fun tahvil ihrac\u0131yla finanse ediliyor ve bu durum kredi piyasas\u0131n\u0131 zorluyor; verilere g\u00f6re teknoloji \u015firketlerinin yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviye tahvil arz\u0131, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki h\u0131z\u0131n %40 \u00fczerinde. Kredi spread\u2019leri arz bask\u0131s\u0131yla geni\u015flemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse, LQD gibi yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviye tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde \u201cput\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan sat\u0131m opsiyonu) almak etkili bir korunma arac\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa \u201ckusursuzluk\u201d fiyatl\u0131yor; harcamalarda yava\u015flama sinyali, varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 genelinde sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe neden olabilir. VIX (piyasadaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) son bir ayd\u0131r 14 civar\u0131nda, y\u0131l\u0131n diplerine yak\u0131n seyrediyor; bu da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korumay\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz k\u0131l\u0131yor. Nasdaq 100\u2019de \u201cout-of-the-money put\u201d (mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu) almak, bu sermaye yo\u011fun hik\u00e2yenin t\u00f6kezleme riskine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli bir korunma yolu.<\/p>\n
Bu in\u015fa s\u00fcrecinin ikinci derece etkileri de izlenmeli; \u00f6zellikle elektrik \u015febekesi \u00fczerindeki y\u00fck. Son raporlar, yeni veri merkezlerinin enerji t\u00fcketiminin tahminleri a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun net bir darbo\u011faz olu\u015fturdu\u011funu vurguluyor. Daha az kalabal\u0131k bir se\u00e7enek, kamu hizmetleri (elektrik-su-do\u011falgaz) sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde veya elektrik \u00fcretimi ve \u015febeke altyap\u0131s\u0131nda yer alan \u015firketlerde uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na bakmak olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: Yapay zeka altyap\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 2027\u2019ye dek 1,1 trilyon dolara, 2026\u2019da hiper \u00f6l\u00e7eklilerde 800 milyar dolar capex\u2019e ko\u015fuyor. \u00c7ipler y\u00fckselirken, yo\u011fun tahvil ihrac\u0131 kredi spread riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46063","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46063"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46063\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46063"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46063"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46063"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}