Alt\u0131n, Avrupa seans\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.580 dolara gerileyerek cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc dip seviyeye yakla\u015ft\u0131. Piyasalar, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki enerji kaynakl\u0131 risklerin enflasyonu art\u0131rabilece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor. Enflasyonun y\u00fckselmesi, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 tutmas\u0131na (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131na) yol a\u00e7abilir ve faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131na talebi azaltabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en gemilere rehberlik etmek i\u00e7in \u201cProject Freedom\u201du duyurdu ve g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131n kesintiye u\u011framas\u0131 halinde g\u00fc\u00e7 kullan\u0131labilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer, ABD\u2019nin devreye girmesinin ate\u015fkesi ihlal edece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 (IRGC), \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden alevlenmesinin olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtti. Bu da petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en per\u015fembe a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD verileri, mart ay\u0131nda enflasyonun h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu tablo, ABD\u2019de faizlerin gelecek y\u0131la kadar de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalabilece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu. Karara kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye oldu; bu, 1992\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek kar\u015f\u0131 oy say\u0131s\u0131.<\/p>\n
Minneapolis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Neel Kashkari, \u0130ran\u2019la uzun s\u00fcrecek bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n enflasyon risklerini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ekonomiye zarar verebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; daha y\u00fcksek faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi de alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 bu haftaki ABD verilerine \u00e7evrilirken, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 yeni i\u015fe al\u0131m say\u0131s\u0131) verisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta, 1 saatlik MACD (iki hareketli ortalaman\u0131n fark\u0131na dayal\u0131 momentum g\u00f6stergesi) s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda ve RSI (fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m durumunu g\u00f6steren g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi) 49,60 seviyesinde. \u00d6nemli seviyeler: 4.600 dolar ve 4.512,28 dolar destek; 4.650,47, 4.655,61, 4.699,88, 4.744,15, 4.807,19 ve 4.887,48 dolar diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funun (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kuraca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015felerinin hakl\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu endi\u015feler, jeopolitik gerilimlerin enflasyonu beslemesi ve Fed\u2019in gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131ndan (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz, daha bol likidite) uzakla\u015fmak zorunda kalmas\u0131 ihtimaline dayan\u0131yordu. 2025\u2019e bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Fed faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,75 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131 ve karar vericiler aras\u0131nda belirgin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 vard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn 4 May\u0131s 2026 itibar\u0131yla bu \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm tamamen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f durumda; Fed politika faizi %5,25-%5,50 band\u0131nda. G\u00fcncel veriler de bunu destekliyor: Nisan 2026 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n genel seyrini \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) raporuna g\u00f6re enflasyon %3,4 ile kal\u0131c\u0131. Bu ortam ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor ve alt\u0131n gibi faiz getirmeyen varl\u0131klara bask\u0131 yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki jeopolitik riskler kaybolmad\u0131; \u015fekil de\u011fi\u015ftirerek devam ediyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcren istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in taban olu\u015fturuyor. WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri (ABD tipi ham petrol\u00fcn gelecekteki fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) 2026\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7o\u011funlukla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enerji maliyeti enflasyonu besliyor; bu da Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faizi uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma) gerek\u00e7elendiriyor ve alt\u0131n i\u00e7in olumsuz bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u201cT\u00fcrev\u201d \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131nda zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Alt\u0131n vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (GC: alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) ya da alt\u0131n\u0131 izleyen bir ETF\u2019de (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, alt\u0131n 4.510 civar\u0131ndaki kilit desteklere do\u011fru k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flaman\u0131n do\u011frudan bir yolu. VIX endeksiyle (piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\/volatilite g\u00f6stergesi) \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen dalgalanma 20\u2019nin alt\u0131nda sakin kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu opsiyonlar\u0131n maliyeti a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcksek de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Kademeli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in daha net bir strateji, \u201cbear put spread\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynanan sat\u0131m opsiyonu kombinasyonu) olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, Haziran vadeli 4.550 sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p ayn\u0131 anda Haziran vadeli 4.500 sat\u0131m opsiyonu satarak ilk maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir. Bu pozisyon, fiyat\u0131n 4.550\u2019nin alt\u0131na inmesinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar ve bask\u0131n trendin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumludur.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, ani bir jeopolitik t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f riskini de hesaba katmak gerekir. B\u00f6yle bir durum, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d al\u0131mlar\u0131yla (krizde riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f) alt\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi tetikleyebilir ve faiz hik\u00e2yesini ge\u00e7ici olarak ikinci plana itebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 \u00e7ok daha yukar\u0131da olan ucuz al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (out-of-the-money call: \u015fu anki fiyat\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde al\u0131m hakk\u0131) sat\u0131n alabilir. Bu, sert ve beklenmedik bir yukar\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcr.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131: 4.580 dolara gerileyen fiyat, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 enerji enflasyonu ve Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d duru\u015fuyla s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, teknik zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46061","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46061"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46061\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46061"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46061"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46061"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}