Commerzbank, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) \u0130svi\u00e7re frank\u0131n\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde zay\u0131flatmak i\u00e7in elinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 se\u00e7enek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Bankaya g\u00f6re s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirme (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kurla ilgili mesaj vererek piyasay\u0131 etkilemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) ve daha h\u0131zl\u0131 tepkiler, kurun uzun vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor.<\/p>\n
Notta, frank\u0131n uzun vadeli seyrini de\u011fi\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasada al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yaparak kura do\u011frudan etki etmesi) gerekti\u011fi, bunun da 2024 \u00f6ncesine benzer bir b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte olaca\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Birka\u00e7 milyar \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 (CHF) tutar\u0131ndaki m\u00fcdahalelerle, gerekebilecek yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 milyar CHF d\u00fczeyi kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Commerzbank, SNB\u2019nin bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck tutarlardan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha y\u00fcksek d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n yabanc\u0131 para\/varl\u0131k birikimi) yabanc\u0131 para riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca mevcut ko\u015fullarda SNB\u2019nin bilan\u00e7osundaki (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n varl\u0131k ve y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fck toplam\u0131) ABD dolar\u0131 (USD) riskini b\u00fcy\u00fctmek istemeyebilece\u011fi vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Notta ABD ile ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011fu ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc m\u00fcdahalelerin ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131ndan olumsuz tepki \u00e7ekebilece\u011fi de ekleniyor. Daha sert bir ticaret geriliminin reel ekonomiyi (\u00fcretim, istihdam, t\u00fcketim gibi finans d\u0131\u015f\u0131 alanlar) etkileyebilece\u011fi; bunun da SNB\u2019yi ad\u0131m atmaktan cayd\u0131rabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
SNB\u2019nin \u0130svi\u00e7re frank\u0131n\u0131 anlaml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flatacak \u00e7ok az arac\u0131 kald\u0131. Bu durum, frank\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine do\u011fru yap\u0131sal bir e\u011filim yarat\u0131yor; yani USD\/CHF paritesindeki (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) k\u0131sa vadeli toparlanmalar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Banka bunu d\u00f6nemsel (konjonkt\u00fcrel) de\u011fil, kal\u0131c\u0131 (yap\u0131sal) bir sorun olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonunun yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5\u2019te sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131, bunun da ABD\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen %3 seviyesinin belirgin alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Bu temel fark, frank\u0131 \u201cde\u011fer saklama arac\u0131\u201d (belirsizlikte de\u011feri daha iyi korudu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen para) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kararak sermaye giri\u015fini destekliyor. SNB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz rezervleri zirveden gerilemi\u015f olsa da yakla\u015f\u0131k 850 milyar CHF ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek; bu da bankay\u0131 bilan\u00e7osunu daha fazla b\u00fcy\u00fctme konusunda isteksiz k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Commerzbank\u2019a g\u00f6re frank\u0131n uzun vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekten de\u011fi\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in SNB\u2019nin 2024 \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00f6l\u00e7ekte, muhtemelen on milyarlarca CHF\u2019lik m\u00fcdahale yapmas\u0131 gerekir. Son bir y\u0131lda g\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck m\u00fcdahaleler temel bask\u0131lar\u0131 dengelemeye yetmiyor; bu nedenle bunlar franka yeni bir y\u00f6n vermekten \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadeli dalgalanma yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca \u00f6zellikle ABD ile hassas ticaret ili\u015fkisi nedeniyle ciddi siyasi k\u0131s\u0131tlar bulunuyor. Banka, frank\u0131 zay\u0131flatmaya y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli m\u00fcdahalelerin \u201ckur manip\u00fclasyonu\u201d (kuru bilin\u00e7li bi\u00e7imde bask\u0131lama su\u00e7lamas\u0131) olarak etiketlenebilece\u011fini ve ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 riske atabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Reel ekonomi \u00fczerindeki bu riskin, SNB i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011fu vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda frank\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hareketlerde sat\u0131\u015f yapman\u0131n bir strateji olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. SNB\u2019nin s\u00f6zl\u00fc m\u00fcdahaleleriyle olu\u015fabilecek franktaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, daha uzun vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisine (frank\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi) y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlar i\u00e7in giri\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda CHF i\u00e7in daha uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, fraktaki yap\u0131sal de\u011ferlenmeden yararlanmay\u0131 hedeflerken olas\u0131 kayb\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalara fla\u015f uyar\u0131: Commerzbank\u2019a g\u00f6re SNB\u2019nin frang\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131flatacak arac\u0131 t\u00fckendi. Etki i\u00e7in 50 milyar CHF\u2019lik dev m\u00fcdahale \u015fart; rezerv, USD riski ve ABD siyasi bask\u0131s\u0131 engel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46060","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46060"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46060\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46060"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46060"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46060"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}