G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD), iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan geriledi ve Pazartesi Avrupa saatlerinde ons ba\u015f\u0131na 74,30 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte fiyat\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir kanal i\u00e7inde hareket etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Metal, 9 ve 50 d\u00f6nemlik EMA\u2019lar\u0131n (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren hareketli ortalama) alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu durum, olas\u0131 tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerini d\u00fc\u015fen trend yap\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI (G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: 0-100 aras\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ekte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) 47,16 seviyesinde ve 50\u2019nin biraz alt\u0131nda; bu da y\u00f6n konusunda zay\u0131f bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Destek, 23 Mart\u2019ta g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 61,01 dolar civar\u0131nda. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrerse, fiyat kanal\u0131n alt band\u0131 olan 47,10 dolar b\u00f6lgesini test edebilir.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7, 9 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 74,75 dolar civar\u0131nda. Bunun \u00fczerinde 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 76,79 dolarda ve kanal\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131 78,90 dolar civar\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. Fiyat\u0131n bu b\u00f6lgenin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde tutunmas\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc yukar\u0131 \u00e7evirebilir; hedefler 2 Mart\u2019taki \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesi 96,62 dolar ve 29 Ocak\u2019taki rekor seviye 121,66 dolar olur.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyat\u0131; jeopolitik risk (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 gerilimlerin piyasalara etkisi), resesyon endi\u015feleri (ekonomide daralma beklentisi), faiz oranlar\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131 gibi unsurlardan etkilenebilir. XAG\/USD dolar cinsinden fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi genellikle g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca talep, madencilik arz\u0131, geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, elektronik ve g\u00fcne\u015f paneli gibi alanlarda sanayi kullan\u0131m\u0131 ile Alt\u0131n\/G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131 (alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyat\u0131na oran\u0131) da etkili olur.<\/p>\n
Son temel veriler de bu teknik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 destekliyor. Nisan ay\u0131 ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE: enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7en veri) raporu, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu durum, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yak\u0131nda faiz indirimi yapma ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor. Bunun sonucu olarak ABD Dolar Endeksi (dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek 106 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi dolar bazl\u0131 varl\u0131klar\u0131 genelde bask\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
Sanayi talebinde de zay\u0131flama sinyali var. \u00c7in\u2019den gelen imalat PMI verisi (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcme, alt\u0131 daralma) 49,8 ile hafif daralmaya i\u015faret etti. Bu, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn elektronik ve g\u00fcne\u015f paneli gibi sekt\u00f6rlerdeki kullan\u0131m\u0131na dayanan de\u011fer hik\u00e2yesini zay\u0131flat\u0131r. K\u00fcresel imalatta yava\u015flama, fiziksel metal talebini azaltabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo alt\u0131nda, 61,01 dolar civar\u0131ndaki d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n dip seviyesinin yeniden test edilmesine oynayan stratejiler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Put opsiyonu almak (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) veya bear call spread kurmak (ayn\u0131 vadede daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call sat\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call alarak y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 prim geliriyle oynamak) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. Bir sonraki ana a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hedef, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kanal\u0131n alt band\u0131 olan 47,10 dolar olur.<\/p>\n
Ancak 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI\u2019\u0131n 47 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir momentum eksikli\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu nedenle \u00e7ok sert ve ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklemek do\u011fru olmayabilir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn daha kademeli olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterir. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00fcnlerinde fiyat\u0131n pe\u015finden gitmekten ka\u00e7\u0131nmak gerekir.<\/p>\n
Ana risk, fiyat\u0131n kanal\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131 olan 78,90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde tutunma, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar ve 96,62 dolardaki Mart zirvesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi tetikleyebilir. Bu nedenle 78,90 b\u00f6lgesi, k\u0131sa y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemleri yeniden de\u011ferlendirmek veya kapatmak i\u00e7in net bir seviye olarak izlenmeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kanal\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: 74,30\u2019da 9\/50 EMA alt\u0131nda, RSI 47. Destek 61,01-47,10; diren\u00e7 74,75-78,90. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve zay\u0131f \u00c7in PMI bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46059","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46059"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46059\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46059"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46059"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46059"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}