ECB\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7 ayda bir yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Profesyonel Tahminciler Anketi\u2019ne g\u00f6re Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu 2026\u2019da ortalama %2,7 olacak. Enflasyonun 2027\u2019de %2,1\u2019e ve 2028\u2019de %2\u2019ye gerilemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi GSYH\u2019sinin 2026\u2019da %1 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu oran, \u00f6nceki anketteki %1,2 tahminine g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n
Piyasalarda EUR\/USD, Pazartesi Avrupa seans\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Parite en son 1,1710 seviyesinde, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,1 eksiyle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki tahminlere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n bu y\u0131l enflasyonun %2,7 ile \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu beklenti, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 tutmas\u0131 gerekece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyordu. Ancak May\u0131s 2026 itibar\u0131yla tablo farkl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Eurostat\u2019\u0131n Nisan 2026 i\u00e7in yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc (h\u0131zl\u0131) tahmine g\u00f6re enflasyon %2,4\u2019e indi ve y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri s\u00fcren d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi devam etti. Bu seviye, 2025\u2019te yap\u0131lan %2,7\u2019lik tahminlerin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda. Beklentilerin s\u00fcrekli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u015fa\u015fmas\u0131, \u015fu anda piyasan\u0131n ana g\u00fcndemi.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon, ECB \u00fczerindeki yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor ve y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimi ihtimalini de tamamen d\u0131\u015flam\u0131yor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u201cfaizlerin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede daha uzun s\u00fcre kalmas\u0131\u201d senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin faiz takas\u0131 (interest rate swap: taraflar\u0131n sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizi takas etti\u011fi t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemlerinde sabit faiz \u201calmak\u201d (receive fixed: sabit faizi al\u0131p de\u011fi\u015fken faizi \u00f6demek), politika faizi y\u00fckselmezse avantaj sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131n 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,1710 seviyesinden ne kadar uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 da not edilmeli. EUR\/USD \u015fu anda 1,0850 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, parite daha \u00f6nce beklenen zirvelere geri d\u00f6nemedi. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 1,0800 alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 EUR\/USD\u2019de sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) alarak korunmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcme taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l tahmin edilen %1,0\u2019lik zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye g\u00f6re biraz daha iyi. Ekonomi 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde %0,4 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc ve beklentileri hafif a\u015ft\u0131. Bu durum, enflasyon d\u00fc\u015ferken b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin sert bozulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 zor bir ortam yarat\u0131yor; bu da piyasa belirsizli\u011fini art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB anketi Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyonun 2026\u2019da %2,7\u2019den d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ip 2028\u2019de %2\u2019ye inece\u011fini, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %1\u2019e gerileyece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; EUR\/USD zay\u0131f, ECB\u2019de faiz indirimi senaryosu masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46058","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46058"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46058\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46058"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46058"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46058"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}