Piyasa, ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) bu y\u0131l \u00fc\u00e7 kez faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak bu beklenti giderek daha agresif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n son \u201cflash estimate\u201d (\u00f6nc\u00fc h\u0131zl\u0131 tahmin) verisi, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisinin neredeyse hi\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmedi\u011fini do\u011frulad\u0131: 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde art\u0131\u015f yaln\u0131zca %0,1 oldu. Bu zay\u0131f tablo, ECB\u2019nin eyl\u00fcl sonras\u0131nda para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faizleri) daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilme kapasitesini ciddi \u015fekilde sorgulat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131nda \u201cheadline inflation\u201d (man\u015fet enflasyon: enerji ve g\u0131da dahil genel oran) enerji maliyetleri nedeniyle %3\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, \u201ccore inflation\u201d (\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon: enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7, daha kal\u0131c\u0131 e\u011filimi g\u00f6steren oran) %2,2\u2019ye geriledi. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma \u00f6nemli; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc alttaki fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kontrols\u00fcz bi\u00e7imde h\u0131zlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. 2021-22 d\u00f6nemindeki pandemi sonras\u0131 enflasyondan da bildi\u011fimiz gibi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda merkez bankalar\u0131 man\u015fet oranlar y\u00fcksek kalsa bile daha temkinli davranabiliyor.<\/p>\n
Bankalar\u0131n kredi verme e\u011filimine ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenine ili\u015fkin son anketler, ekonomi i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. S&P Global Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u201cComposite PMI\u201d (bile\u015fik PMI: imalat ve hizmetleri birle\u015ftiren sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi) nisanda 50,8\u2019e geriledi; b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile daralmay\u0131 ay\u0131ran 50 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde kald\u0131 ve temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu tablo, piyasadaki \u201chawkishness\u201de (\u015fahin duru\u015f: faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131 beklenti) kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor; \u00f6rne\u011fin 4. \u00e7eyrek vadeli \u201cswap\u201dlarda (faiz takas\u0131: sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sabit faizi \u201creceive\u201d etmek (sabit faiz al\u0131p de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6demek) gibi.<\/p>\n
Ana senaryomuz, enflasyon beklentilerini sabitleme ihtiyac\u0131 nedeniyle haziran ve eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Ancak zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal h\u00e2line getiriyor. Aral\u0131k 2026 vadeli \u201cEuribor futures\u201d (Euribor vadeli i\u015flemleri: Euro para piyasas\u0131 faizine dayal\u0131 kontratlar) mevcut fiyatlamas\u0131, politika faizinin bizim de\u011ferlendirmemize g\u00f6re en az 25 baz puan (0,25 puan) fazla fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in belirgin bir f\u0131rsata i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fla\u015f veri uyar\u0131yor: Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %0,1\u2019e indi. Piyasan\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 ECB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 abart\u0131l\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon %2,2\u2019ye gerilerken, eyl\u00fcl sonras\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131; swap\/futures\u2019ta f\u0131rsat do\u011fuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46057","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46057"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46057\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46057"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46057"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46057"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}