USD\/JPY, 160\u2019a yak\u0131n seviyeden 157\u2019nin hafif alt\u0131na geriledi. Hareket, Per\u015fembe ak\u015fam\u0131 Asya saatlerinde Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahalesi (yenin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasaya do\u011frudan giri\u015f) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) cari hesap mevduat verileri ve para piyasas\u0131 pozisyon de\u011fi\u015fimlerinden yap\u0131lan tahminler, i\u015flemin yakla\u015f\u0131k 5\u20136 trilyon yen, yani kabaca 32\u201338 milyar dolar oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Tahmini b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck, Nisan 2024 ve Ekim 2022\u2019deki m\u00fcdahalelerle benzer. USD\/JPY\u2019deki bundan sonraki hareketlerin; politika ayarlar\u0131na, \u00f6zellikle Fed\u2019in daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yerine faiz indirimi\/gev\u015feme e\u011filimli) bir duru\u015fa ge\u00e7ip ge\u00e7meyece\u011fine ve BoJ\u2019un faiz art\u0131r\u0131p art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
MUFG\u2019nin temel senaryosu, BoJ\u2019un bu y\u0131l Haziran ve Aral\u0131k aylar\u0131nda iki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu varsay\u0131m alt\u0131nda ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle (enerji arz\u0131 ve risk alg\u0131s\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli), USD\/JPY\u2019nin 152\u2019ye do\u011fru kademeli olarak gerileyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de tan\u0131d\u0131k bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm var: Parite yeniden 150\u2019lerin \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131 zorluyor ve bu da Japon yetkililerin m\u00fcdahale riskini belirgin \u015fekilde art\u0131r\u0131yor. 2025\u2019teki geli\u015fmelere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kur 160\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken yetkililerin yakla\u015f\u0131k 5\u20136 trilyon yenle piyasaya girdi\u011fi tahmin edilmi\u015fti. Bu hamle, Ekim 2022 ve Nisan 2024\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli yen savunmalar\u0131na benziyor.<\/p>\n
M\u00fcdahale tehdidi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsenmemeli; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc paritede ani ve sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler yaratabiliyor. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nceki y\u0131llara ait verileri, gerekti\u011finde y\u00fcksek tutarlar\u0131n kullan\u0131labildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; 2024\u2019teki bir d\u00f6nemde m\u00fcdahalelerin toplam\u0131 9 trilyon yenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir finansal varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu durum, USD\/JPY\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma maliyetinin opsiyonlarla (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Temel belirleyici, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz fark\u0131. Fed\u2019in faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,50\u2019de tutmas\u0131 ve BoJ faizinin %0,1 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, yene kar\u015f\u0131 dolar ta\u015f\u0131mak \u201ccarry trade\u201di (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7erek faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedeflenen i\u015flem) cazip k\u0131lmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu destek, politikada de\u011fi\u015fim olmadan paritede kal\u0131c\u0131 ve uzun vadeli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n BoJ\u2019un yeni faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve taze g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) BoJ\u2019un %2 hedefinin bir y\u0131ldan uzun s\u00fcredir \u00fczerinde; \u015fu an %2,2 seviyesinde. Bu durum, karar al\u0131c\u0131lar \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ortamda s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131, yenin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tetikleyici olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tabloya g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n USD\/JPY\u2019de \u201cput opsiyonu\u201d (belirli bir vadede, belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Bu strateji, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften 152\u2019ye do\u011fru yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler ve riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutar; parite y\u00fckselmeye devam ederse zarar s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fcmez. Ayr\u0131ca m\u00fcdahale tehdidi d\u00f6nemlerinde artan oynakl\u0131ktan (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi) faydalan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta, ABD\u2019de enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 seyri (son d\u00f6nemde y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1 art\u0131\u015f), Fed\u2019in faiz indiriminde aceleci olmayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da USD\/JPY\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn daha \u00e7ok kademeli ve zorlay\u0131c\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u201c\u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u201d tipi bir hareketten ziyade, resmi ad\u0131mlar sonras\u0131 sert ama s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar\/yen 160\u2019tan 157 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131; piyasada Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 5\u20136 trilyon yenlik m\u00fcdahalesi konu\u015fuluyor. Yeni y\u00f6n; Fed\u2019in g\u00fcvercinle\u015fmesi, BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve 152 hedefli riskten korunma opsiyonlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46049","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46049"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46049\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46049"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46049"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46049"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}