ABD Dolar\u0131, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Japon Yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bir miktar toparland\u0131 ve Avrupa seans\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 156,80 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. USD\/JPY Asya\u2019da dakikalar i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k 150 pip (kurda 0,01\u2019lik birim; paritenin en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131) gerileyerek 155,70 civar\u0131na indi, ard\u0131ndan 157,00\u2019ye do\u011fru yeniden y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorum yapmad\u0131. Ancak hareketin belirgin bir piyasa nedeni olmadan gelmesi ve benzer \u015fekilde bir\u00e7ok yen paritesini etkilemesi dikkat \u00e7ekti. Reuters, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BOJ) ge\u00e7en hafta yeni desteklemek i\u00e7in 5,48 trilyon yen (35 milyar dolar) harcam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY 160,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, Tokyo\u2019nun kurda \u201cspek\u00fclat\u00f6rlere\u201d (k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 arayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar) kar\u015f\u0131 kararl\u0131 ad\u0131m atmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Yen, bu seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131ndan bu yana birka\u00e7 kez sert hareketler kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Genel piyasalarda hava sakin kald\u0131. Odak, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda (petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik deniz ge\u00e7idi) engellenen gemileri \u201cserbest b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya y\u00f6neldi. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer ise su yolunun kapal\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da Golden Week nedeniyle veri takvimi bo\u015f. ABD\u2019de Pazartesi Fabrika Sipari\u015fleri a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ISM Hizmetler PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/daralma sinyali veren anket g\u00f6stergesi) gelirken, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam dahil (tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131; ABD i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc i\u00e7in ana g\u00f6sterge) istihdam verileri takip edilecek.<\/p>\n
Dolar-yen opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) sert y\u00fckseldi; 1 ayl\u0131k oynakl\u0131k endeksi 13,5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu seviye, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki bankac\u0131l\u0131k \u00e7alkant\u0131s\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu durum piyasan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla opsiyon primi (opsiyonu sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) pahal\u0131.<\/p>\n
M\u00fcdahale bekleyenler i\u00e7in JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu veya USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak, paritede ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (kay\u0131p \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r) faydalanma yolu sunar. 2024\u2019teki \u00f6rneklere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda parite saatler i\u00e7inde birka\u00e7 y\u00fcz pip d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu da bu t\u00fcr pozisyonlar\u0131 k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getirebilir. Y\u00fcksek prim, riskin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etse de k\u0131sa vadeli denemeler i\u00e7in getiri potansiyeli maliyeti kar\u015f\u0131layabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faizi %4,75\u2019teyken BOJ\u2019un faizi %0,25 seviyesinde. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclke faizi aras\u0131ndaki fark; genelde y\u00fcksek faizli para birimini destekler) dolar\u0131 desteklemeye devam ediyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD istihdam verisinde beklentiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 215 bin ki\u015filik art\u0131\u015fla da g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.<\/p>\n
Bu iki z\u0131t etken nedeniyle opsiyon sat\u0131p prim toplamak (k\u0131sa opsiyon stratejisi; s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z\/\u00e7ok y\u00fcksek zarar riski ta\u015f\u0131yabilir) olduk\u00e7a tehlikeli. Olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleyle gelecek ani ve sert hareket, \u201cshort vega\u201d (oynakl\u0131k art\u0131nca zarar eden pozisyon) veya \u201cshort gamma\u201d (fiyat h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fince zarar eden pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131yanlarda b\u00fcy\u00fck zarara yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu belirsiz ortamda \u201clong straddle\/strangle\u201d (iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynayan; al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte alan stratejiler) daha uygun g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar\/yen 156,80\u2019e toparlansa da Asya\u2019da 150 piplik sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f m\u00fcdahale \u015f\u00fcphesini art\u0131rd\u0131. Opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 13,5\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131; pahal\u0131 primler riski fiyatl\u0131yor. Fed-BOJ faiz fark\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46048","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46048"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46048\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}