Ge\u00e7en hafta hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fle kapand\u0131. Y\u00fckseli\u015fe teknoloji ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti. \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 gerilimler ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatsa da endeksler yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyretti. Piyasalarda ayn\u0131 anda hem hisse senetleri hem de tahvil faizleri y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Hisse senetleri ile tahviller aras\u0131ndaki **ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc ili\u015fki**nin (biri y\u00fckselirken di\u011ferinin d\u00fc\u015fmesi) yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi belirtildi. Bir s\u00fcredir birlikte hareket etme e\u011filimindeydiler. Hafta, daha y\u00fcksek hisse fiyatlar\u0131yla birlikte daha y\u00fcksek tahvil faizleriyle sona erdi.<\/p>\n
\u015eirket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 d\u00f6nemi (\u015firketlerin finansal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem) \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve son y\u00fckseli\u015fin ana nedeni olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130ran ve daha geni\u015f Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ba\u011fl\u0131 jeopolitik riskler ise olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %6\u20137 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi; getirinin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde **k\u00e2r art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan** (\u015firketlerin daha \u00e7ok kazanmas\u0131) geldi\u011fi, **de\u011ferleme** (hisselerin \u201cpahal\u0131\/ucuz\u201d say\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen fiyat \u00e7arpanlar\u0131) etkisinin daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk \u00e7eyrek k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesiyle hisse senetlerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejiler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Verilere g\u00f6re S&P 500 \u015firketlerinin %80\u2019inden fazlas\u0131 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek **hisse ba\u015f\u0131na k\u00e2r (EPS)** tahminlerini a\u015ft\u0131. Bu, mevcut ralliyi (h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f d\u00f6nemini) daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endekslerde **al\u0131m opsiyonu (call)** \u2014belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme\u2014 almay\u0131 makul bir tercih haline getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin s\u00fcrmesi ani fiyat \u015foklar\u0131 riskini canl\u0131 tutuyor. WTI ham petrol\u00fc (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 2025 sonundaki s\u0131\u00e7ramadan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Enerji ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) **zarar yazd\u0131rmayacak kadar uzak kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu** (out-of-the-money call: mevcut fiyattan daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 olan call) almak, olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 **koruma** (hedge) amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi ve tahviller aras\u0131nda klasik ters ili\u015fkiye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da genelde \u201crisk alma iste\u011fi art\u0131yor\u201d anlam\u0131na gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal kabul edilir. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi %4,8 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, bu e\u011filim yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n **hisse uzun (long) pozisyonu** (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefi) ile **tahvil k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonunu** (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefi) birlikte de\u011ferlendirmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu, \u00f6rne\u011fin TLT gibi uzun vadeli tahvil fonlar\u0131nda **sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put)** \u2014belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme\u2014 almak \u015feklinde uygulanabilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00e2r ivmesi piyasada bir t\u00fcr \u201cdestek\u201d g\u00f6revi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve bu da dalgalanmay\u0131 azaltabilir. **VIX** (beklenen oynakl\u0131k endeksi; piyasadaki korku\/oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) 15\u2019in alt\u0131na inerken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sonu\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f \u015firketlerde **nakit teminatl\u0131 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131** (cash-secured put: olas\u0131 al\u0131m i\u00e7in nakit ay\u0131rarak put satmak) veya **put kredi spreadi** (daha yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put sat\u0131p daha uzak kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put alarak risk s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rma) uygulanabilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, **prim** (opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 geliri) toplamay\u0131 sa\u011flar ve k\u00e2r g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7ifte y\u00fckseli\u015f sinyali: Hisseler teknoloji \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde t\u0131rman\u0131rken tahvil faizleri de artt\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bilan\u00e7olar ralliyi besliyor; \u0130ran gerilimi ve 95$\u2019\u0131 a\u015fan petrol hedge ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 diri tutuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46043","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46043"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46043\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46043"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46043"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46043"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}