Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n ithalat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 martta %1,51\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemde %10,85 olan art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var.<\/p>\n
Veriler, mart ay\u0131n\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki okuma olan %10,85 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130thalat kalemleri veya nedenlere ili\u015fkin ek ayr\u0131nt\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Martta ithalat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %10,85\u2019ten %1,51\u2019e gerilemesi, Endonezya\u2019da yurti\u00e7i talebin (hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketimi ve \u015firket harcamalar\u0131) keskin \u015fekilde yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, ikinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk yaratabilir. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde %4,9 olan GSYH (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la; \u00fclkenin toplam \u00fcretim de\u011feri) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi olabilir.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f ithalat verisi, k\u0131sa vadede Endonezya Rupisi\u2019ne (IDR; Endonezya para birimi) destek verebilir. \u0130thalat faturas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi, d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini (ihracat-ithalat fark\u0131) iyile\u015ftirir. Bu da IDR\u2019nin son d\u00f6nemde dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 16.450 civar\u0131nda taban olu\u015fturmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f olabilir. Ancak bu denge k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flama sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131na (yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n \u00fclkeden ayr\u0131lmas\u0131) yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda bu veri, Cakarta Bile\u015fik Endeksi (JCI; Endonezya borsas\u0131n\u0131n ana endeksi) i\u00e7in uyar\u0131 niteli\u011finde. Yurti\u00e7i yava\u015flamaya en duyarl\u0131 t\u00fcketim-d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel (ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fcye ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim \u015firketleri) ve sanayi hisselerinde pozisyon azalt\u0131yoruz. Bu, 2025 sonunda kamu altyap\u0131 projelerinin etkisiyle ithalat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken benimsedi\u011fimiz olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmden belirgin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f.<\/p>\n
Veri, Bank Indonesia\u2019y\u0131 zor bir noktaya getiriyor. Nisan enflasyonu %3,3 ile hafif y\u00fcksek kald\u0131. Bu nedenle banka, ekonomi so\u011furken bile politika faizini (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temel faiz oran\u0131) yak\u0131n vadede sabit tutmak zorunda kalabilir; bu da politika belirsizli\u011fi yarat\u0131r. Piyasada IDR opsiyonlar\u0131nda (kurda belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131yoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon sinyallerini birlikte fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesinin pozitif kal\u0131p kalamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in nisan ihracat verisini izleyece\u011fiz. Zay\u0131f ihracat ile bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ithalat birlikte, genel bir ekonomik durgunlu\u011fu teyit edebilir ve IDR\u2019yi son destek seviyelerinin alt\u0131na itebilir. Bu senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli korunma amac\u0131yla (hedge; riski azaltma) IDR\u2019de \u201czarar durdurma\u201d niteli\u011finde paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money; mevcut kurun daha uza\u011f\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 getiri sa\u011flayabilen opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Endonezya\u2019da ithalat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 martta %10,85\u2019ten %1,51\u2019e sert fren yapt\u0131: Yurti\u00e7i talepte so\u011fuma, 2\u00c7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 risk, Rupiah\u2019da k\u0131sa destek ama k\u0131r\u0131lgan denge ve JCI\u2019da uyar\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46040","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46040","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46040"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46040\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46040"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46040"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46040"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}