AUD\/USD, haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda 0,7200 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde yatay (konsolidasyon) seyrediyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve Haziran 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan b\u00f6lgeye yak\u0131n kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasada, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekliyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin artmas\u0131, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 para birimi) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talebi art\u0131r\u0131yor ve y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
4 saatlik grafikte parite, yak\u0131n zamanda 100 periyotluk \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019dan (EMA: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) destek alarak y\u00fckseldi ve cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,7200 direncinin (y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorlayan seviye) \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131\/g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 62 civar\u0131nda. MACD histogram\u0131 (MACD: iki hareketli ortalama aras\u0131ndaki farkla trend g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc izleyen g\u00f6sterge) hafif pozitif.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6stergeler, mart sonundaki dipten (swing low: k\u0131sa vadeli \u00f6nemli dip) gelen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Geri \u00e7ekilmede 0,7137 civar\u0131ndaki 100 periyotluk EMA yak\u0131n\u0131nda destek g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu seviyenin net \u015fekilde alt\u0131na inilmesi (decisive break: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m), daha derin bir d\u00fczeltmeyi (correction: y\u00fckseli\u015f sonras\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme) tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
RBA, y\u0131lda sekiz planl\u0131 toplant\u0131da faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 belirler. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 genelde AUD i\u00e7in destekleyicidir; faizin sabit kalmas\u0131 veya indirim ise \u00e7o\u011funlukla para birimi i\u00e7in olumsuzdur.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta yap\u0131lacak RBA toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde AUD\/USD\u2019nin 0,6650 civar\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Piyasa, ge\u00e7en ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00e7eyreklik enflasyon verisi sonras\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini fiyatl\u0131yor. T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (CPI: enflasyonun temel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) %3,9 ile beklentiden daha kal\u0131c\u0131 gelmesi bu ihtimali canl\u0131 tutuyor. Bu tablo, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar merkez bankas\u0131ndan yeni mesajlar beklerken paritede belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki benzer bir d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor: faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileriyle iyimser hava pariteyi 0,7200 \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f, RSI ve MACD gibi teknik sinyaller y\u00fckseli\u015fi desteklemi\u015fti. Ancak k\u00fcresel geli\u015fmelerin y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine d\u00f6nmesiyle bu ralli zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) enflasyona dair temkinli duru\u015fu ve G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki s\u00fcregelen ticaret gerilimleri nedeniyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor. Avustralya\u2019da i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n (unemployment: i\u015fsizlerin i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcne oran\u0131) %4,1\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi de, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen RBA\u2019n\u0131n faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e yarat\u0131yor. Bu iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk, net bir y\u00f6n bahsi yapmay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
RBA\u2019dan \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yak\u0131n duru\u015f) bir s\u00fcrpriz bekleyenler i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun i\u015flem g\u00f6rece\u011fi sabit fiyat) 0,6750 civar\u0131nda olan k\u0131sa vadeli AUD\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynayan opsiyon) mant\u0131kl\u0131 olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi yakalamay\u0131 hedefler. \u00d6denen prim (premium: opsiyon bedeli) en fazla kay\u0131pt\u0131r ve sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Tersine, RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (dovish: daha gev\u015fek politika, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan uzak duru\u015f) kalmas\u0131ndan veya riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n USD\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesinden endi\u015fe edenler sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan opsiyon) de\u011ferlendirebilir. 0,6600\u2019deki son destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkma h\u0131zlanabilir; put opsiyonlar\u0131 bu senaryoda koruma ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. Bu, RBA\u2019n\u0131n enflasyondan \u00e7ok zay\u0131flayan i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na \u00f6ncelik verme ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 bir dengeleme (hedge: riski azaltma) sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/USD 0,7200 \u00fczerinde tutunuyor: RBA\u2019dan olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 AUD\u2019yi desteklerken, artan jeopolitik riskler USD\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip y\u00fckseli\u015fi frenliyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm pozitif; kritik destek 0,7137.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46037"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46037\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}