{"id":46031,"date":"2026-05-04T06:25:24","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T06:25:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/asya-seansinda-altin-sahin-merkez-bankalarinin-etkisiyle-gerilerken-guclu-satis-baskisi-gorulmeden-4-600-dolarin-uzerinde-tutunuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-04T06:25:24","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T06:25:24","slug":"asya-seansinda-altin-sahin-merkez-bankalarinin-etkisiyle-gerilerken-guclu-satis-baskisi-gorulmeden-4-600-dolarin-uzerinde-tutunuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/asya-seansinda-altin-sahin-merkez-bankalarinin-etkisiyle-gerilerken-guclu-satis-baskisi-gorulmeden-4-600-dolarin-uzerinde-tutunuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Asya seans\u0131nda alt\u0131n, \u015fahin merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle gerilerken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmeden 4.600 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n, Pazartesi Asya seans\u0131nda geriledi ancak 4.600 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) dahil b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131ndan gelen \u201c\u015fahin\u201d mesajlar (faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fi sinyali), Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki enerji arz\u0131 \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu art\u0131rabilece\u011fi ve faiz getirmeyen alt\u0131na talebi azaltabilece\u011fi endi\u015felerinin ard\u0131ndan etkili oldu.<\/p>\n

ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en gemilere rehberlik etmek i\u00e7in \u201cProject Freedom\u201du \u00f6nerdi ve engellenmesi halinde g\u00fc\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131. \u0130ranl\u0131 milletvekili Ebrahim Azizi, ABD m\u00fcdahalesinin ate\u015fkesi ihlal edece\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (IRGC), ABD\u2019yi anla\u015fmalara uymamakla su\u00e7lad\u0131 ve yeniden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimalinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n

Fed Politikas\u0131 ve Enflasyon G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

ABD verileri ge\u00e7en Per\u015fembe, Mart\u2019ta enflasyonun h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu durum, Fed\u2019in faizleri gelecek y\u0131la kadar de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyebilece\u011fi beklentisini destekledi. Fed, faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu; kar\u015f\u0131 oy say\u0131s\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (1992\u2019den beri en y\u00fcksek). Fed \u00fcyesi Neel Kashkari, \u0130ran\u2019la uzayan bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n enflasyon riskini art\u0131rabilece\u011fini ve daha y\u00fcksek faiz gerektirebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

G\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131 alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurarken, piyasa Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisini (ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) bekliyor. Teknik tarafta 1 saatlik MACD (iki hareketli ortalama aras\u0131ndaki farkla momentum \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda, RSI (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6steren g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi) 49,60 seviyesinde. 4.600 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, 4.512,28 dolar\u0131 hedefleyebilir. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.650,47, 4.655,61, 4.699,88, 4.744,15, 4.807,19 ve 4.887,48 dolar.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131yla, faiz getirmeyen alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n \u201cf\u0131rsat maliyeti\u201d (paray\u0131 faize koymaman\u0131n kayb\u0131) y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. Nisan 2026\u2019ya ait son T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisi enflasyonun beklenmedik \u015fekilde %4,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015funu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. K\u0131sa vadede alt\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ana nedeni olarak bunu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda t\u0131rmanan jeopolitik risk, alt\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn daha sert olmas\u0131n\u0131 engelliyor. Bu belirsizlik, opsiyon piyasas\u0131na da yans\u0131yor: CBOE Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi (GVZ; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) son iki haftada %15\u2019ten fazla artarak 22,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ani bir askeri geli\u015fme fiyat\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez \u015fekilde s\u0131\u00e7ratabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n opsiyonlarla (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler) riskini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Yakla\u015fan Veriler ve Taktik Seviyeler<\/h3>\n

Bu Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu bir sonraki ana tetikleyici. Ge\u00e7en ay 280 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, 210 bin beklentisinin \u00fczerinde gelecek bir veri ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ve alt\u0131n\u0131 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na itebilir. Zay\u0131f bir veri ise k\u0131sa vadeli bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n

Taktik olarak 4.600 dolar seviyesini kritik e\u015fik olarak izliyoruz. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, 4.512 dolardaki yap\u0131sal dip seviyeye do\u011fru alan a\u00e7abilir. Bu olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131ma kar\u015f\u0131, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 4.550 dolar civar\u0131nda olan sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak, olas\u0131 kayb\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n

VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda g\u00f6zler 4.600 dolarda: Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonu ve h\u0131zlanan enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 fiyat\u0131 gev\u015fetirken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Cuma NFP, dolar ve y\u00f6n i\u00e7in kritik. Teknik izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46031","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46031","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46031"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46031\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46031"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46031"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46031"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}