Endonezya\u2019da ayl\u0131k enflasyon nisan ay\u0131nda yava\u015flad\u0131. Bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde %0,41 olan oran %0,13\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n
Son veri, t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki (halk\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck harcamalar\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatlar) art\u0131\u015f\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ba\u015fka ayr\u0131nt\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Beklentinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda gelen nisan enflasyonu, Endonezya varl\u0131klar\u0131na (tahvil, hisse ve para birimi gibi yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131na) ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. %0,41\u2019den %0,13\u2019e sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f piyasay\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalad\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa beklentisi yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,30 seviyesindeydi. Bunun ilk sonucu, Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Bank Indonesia\/BI) \u00fczerindeki \u201cs\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya devam etme\u201d bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ortadan kalkmas\u0131 oldu. (S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma: faiz art\u0131rarak kredi kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rma ve talebi so\u011futma.)<\/p>\n
Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun (y\u0131la g\u00f6re fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) %2,9\u2019a gerilemesiyle birlikte BI\u2019\u0131n %1,5-3,5 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n net bi\u00e7imde i\u00e7ine d\u00f6n\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Bu, faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya yatk\u0131n) duru\u015ftan \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d (bekle-g\u00f6r) duru\u015fa \u00e7eviriyor; y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde \u201cgev\u015feme\u201d (faiz indirimi) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da masaya geliyor. Bu nedenle daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ihtimaline g\u00f6re pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, faiz takas\u0131 (interest rate swap: taraflar\u0131n birinin sabit faiz, di\u011ferinin de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6demeyi \u00fcstlendi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemlerinde sabit faiz alma (receive fixed: sabit faizi al\u0131p de\u011fi\u015fken faizi \u00f6deme) y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Kur yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu durum rupiah (IDR) i\u00e7in daha karma\u015f\u0131k bir tablo yarat\u0131yor. Enflasyonun sakinle\u015fmesi k\u0131sa vadede olumlu olsa da, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,75 seviyesinde sabit tutarken Endonezya\u2019da ileride faiz indirimi ihtimali IDR \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir. K\u0131sa vadede rupiah\u0131n olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/IDR \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu almak (put: kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) ve uzun vadeli y\u00f6n konusunda temkinli kalmak daha uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
BI\u2019\u0131n 2025 boyunca enflasyonu dizginlemek i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sert faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, tahvil faizlerini (tahvil getirilerini) yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yeni veri, bu d\u00f6nemin bitti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da devlet tahvili fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f (rally) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Endonezya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynama) almak cazip olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz veri: Endonezya\u2019da nisan enflasyonu %0,41\u2019den %0,13\u2019e indi, y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,9\u2019a geriledi. BI\u2019da \u015fahinlik biterken swap\u2019ta receive fixed, tahvilde long; rupiah\u2019ta ise k\u0131sa vadeli put.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46030","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46030"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46030\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}