G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD), yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir fiyat bo\u015flu\u011fuyla a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra geriledi; ancak art\u0131da kald\u0131 ve Pazartesi Asya saatlerinde ons ba\u015f\u0131na 75,40 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. G\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f, piyasalar\u0131n ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerindeki ilerlemeyi de\u011ferlendirmesiyle g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131na (risk art\u0131nca tercih edilen koruyucu varl\u0131klar) talebin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 sonucu h\u0131z kesti.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg\u2019in Pazar g\u00fcnk\u00fc haberine g\u00f6re Donald Trump, ABD\u2019nin Pazartesi\u2019den itibaren Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan tarafs\u0131z gemileri H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden d\u0131\u015far\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Plan, ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131z \u00fclkelerin (askeri bloklara dahil olmayan \u00fclkeler) sivil gemilerinin b\u00f6lgeden ayr\u0131l\u0131p normal faaliyetlerine d\u00f6nmesini ama\u00e7l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ay\u0131na girerken diplomatik giri\u015fimler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u0130ran, Washington\u2019un son 14 maddelik \u00f6nerisine verdi\u011fi yan\u0131t\u0131 inceledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; Bloomberg ise Trump\u2019\u0131n, Tahran\u2019\u0131n teklifinin beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamayabilece\u011fini dile getirdi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Axios, konuya yak\u0131n kaynaklara dayanarak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in bir ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre \u00f6nerdi\u011fini yazd\u0131. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin hedefi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mak ve ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 (donanman\u0131n deniz trafi\u011fini fiilen k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131) sonland\u0131rmak; ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran ve L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 bitirmek.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltti\u011fi ve enflasyon riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 olu\u015ftu. Bu da merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutabilece\u011fi veya para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fi (kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131racak ad\u0131mlar) endi\u015fesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in ana olumsuz etken jeopolitikten para politikas\u0131na kayd\u0131; bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, 2025 enerji krizi s\u0131ras\u0131nda enflasyondaki s\u0131\u00e7ramayla ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faizi %4,75\u2019te tutarken, faiz getirisi olmayan g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fc elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyeti (faiz getiren ara\u00e7lardan vazge\u00e7menin bedeli) y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. Ancak enflasyonun %2,8\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steren son veriler, piyasada d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekten \u00f6nce faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine fiyatlanmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) olas\u0131 bir politika s\u00fcrprizine g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir alan yarat\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, Fed\u2019in y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi ve daha gev\u015fek politika e\u011filimi) bir \u00e7izgiye d\u00f6nmesi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, faiz beklentileri lehe d\u00f6nerse g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 (k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck primle daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketine duyarl\u0131l\u0131k) y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeli sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, risk i\u015ftah\u0131yla geri \u00e7ekilse de 75,40 dolarda art\u0131da. Jeopolitik bask\u0131 yerini Fed faizlerine b\u0131rakt\u0131; enflasyon gev\u015ferken indirim fiyatlan\u0131yor. \u00d6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck: uzun vadeli call f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46028","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46028","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46028"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46028\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}