NZD\/USD, hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilmede al\u0131mlarla (dip-buying: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce al\u0131m yapma) Asya seans\u0131nda 0,5900 \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Parite 0,5920\u20130,5925 band\u0131nda diren\u00e7le (resistance: y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye) kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor; Orta Do\u011fu krizi izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump, Project Freedom kapsam\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda mahsur kalan tarafs\u0131z gemilere ABD\u2019nin rehberlik edece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. S\u00fcre\u00e7 engellenirse g\u00fc\u00e7 kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, Ebrahim Azizi ABD m\u00fcdahalesinin ate\u015fkes ihlali olaca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fmeler jeopolitik riski y\u00fcksek tutuyor; bu durum g\u00fcvenli liman (safe-haven: kriz d\u00f6neminde talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyip NZD\/USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurabilir. Minneapolis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Neel Kashkari, \u0130ran\u2019la \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzamas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon riskini art\u0131r\u0131p ekonomiye zarar verebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve daha y\u00fcksek faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirdi.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019na destek, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) temkinli kalabilece\u011fi veya enflasyonu %2 hedefinin orta noktas\u0131na (midpoint) geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 (tightening: para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilece\u011fi beklentisinden geliyor. Etkenler kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k oldu\u011fundan, yeni y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in 0,5920\u20130,5925 \u00fczerindeki net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma gerekebilir.<\/p>\n
Pazartesi \u00f6nemli bir ABD verisi yok; bu nedenle ABD Dolar\u0131 haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na duyarl\u0131 kalabilir. Hafta ilerledik\u00e7e ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) ve Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7eyreklik istihdam raporunun pariteye y\u00f6n vermesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in daha \u015fahin (hawkish: faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yak\u0131n) duru\u015fu ile RBNZ\u2019nin daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hareket alan\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, NZD\/USD\u2019de zay\u0131flama riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev (derivative: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapanlar, 1\u20133 ay vadeli NZD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla 0,5800\u2019e olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Mevcut z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) merkez bankas\u0131 belirsizli\u011fine g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon i\u00e7in putlar\u0131 cazip k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, paritenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 nedeniyle anlaml\u0131 toparlanmakta zorlanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan (out-of-the-money: \u015fu anki fiyata g\u00f6re de\u011fersiz) al\u0131m (call) spread\u2019leri satmak olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin 0,6200 ve 0,6250 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, gelir sa\u011flayabilir; ayn\u0131 zamanda paritenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar nedeniyle yukar\u0131da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131na (capped) oynar. Bu strateji, fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinden ve zaman de\u011feri erimesinden (time decay: vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon de\u011ferinin azalmas\u0131) fayda sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan veriler, \u00f6zellikle ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam ve Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7eyreklik istihdam raporu, oynakl\u0131k (volatility: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) i\u00e7in kritik tetikleyiciler olacak. Y\u00f6n konusunda karars\u0131z olup sert hareket bekleyenler, bu veriler \u00f6ncesi straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem call hem put alma) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; ama\u00e7, haber olumlu ya da olumsuz olsun oynakl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan yararlanmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
NZD\/USD Asya\u2019da 0,5900 \u00fcst\u00fcne toparlansa da 0,5920\u20130,5925 direnci kritik: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz jeopoliti\u011fi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Fed \u015fahinle\u015febilir, RBNZ temkinli. NFP\/istihdam verileri volatiliteyi patlatabilir; put\/call spread stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46027","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46027"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46027\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}