USD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 156,60\u2019a geriledikten sonra yeniden 157,00 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Parite, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 155,50\u2013155,45 d\u00fczeyinden (25 \u015eubat\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye) gelen toparlanmay\u0131 izledi, ancak y\u00fckseli\u015f iste\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim art\u0131nca destek buldu. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u201cProject Freedom\u201d kapsam\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en tarafs\u0131z gemilere ABD\u2019nin rehberlik edece\u011fini, olas\u0131 bir aksaman\u0131n ise \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7 kullan\u0131larak\u201d kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6rece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Meclisi Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Komisyonu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ebrahim Azizi, ABD\u2019nin su yoluna m\u00fcdahalesinin ate\u015fkesi ihlal edece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Minneapolis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Neel Kashkari, \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzamas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) riskini art\u0131rabilece\u011fini ve ekonomiye zarar verebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; faizlerin daha da y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi ihtimalini g\u00fcndeme getirdi.<\/p>\n
Haberlerde, Japon yetkililerin 1 May\u0131s civar\u0131nda muhtemelen m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi, Yeni desteklemek i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 5,4 trilyon yen (34,5 milyar dolar) harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Bu durum, USD\/JPY\u2019de yukar\u0131 hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nemli bir ABD verisi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in parite, daha \u00e7ok Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan gelecek yeni geli\u015fmelere tepki verebilir. Yen; Japonya ekonomisi, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOJ) politikas\u0131, ABD\u2013Japonya tahvil faiz fark\u0131 ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma e\u011filimi) de\u011fi\u015fimlerden etkilenir.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY 162,50 seviyesini test ederken, ABD dolar\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep ile Japonya\u2019n\u0131n piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etme riski kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya geliyor. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in gergin bir tablo olu\u015fturuyor; ani ve sert bir hareket ihtimali art\u0131yor. Temel sorun, ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131n ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ile yetkililerin do\u011frudan kur piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahalesi aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eki\u015fme.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2025\u2019te parite 157,00 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz d\u00f6neme benziyor. O d\u00f6nemde Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve Fed\u2019den \u201c\u015fahin\u201d mesajlar (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na\/uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faize i\u015faret eden s\u00f6ylem) dolar\u0131 desteklemi\u015fti; bug\u00fcn de jeopolitik kayg\u0131lar ve y\u00fcksek kalan ABD enflasyonu benzer etki yarat\u0131yor. 2025\u2019ten \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lacak sonu\u00e7: USD\/JPY i\u00e7in temel g\u00f6stergeler yukar\u0131y\u0131 i\u015faret etse bile, m\u00fcdahale korkusu haftalarca y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Ana belirleyici, faiz fark\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor ve bu fark geni\u015fledi. Nisan 2026 sonu itibar\u0131yla ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k hazine tahvili faizi %4,8, Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faizi ise yaln\u0131zca %1,1 seviyesinde. Bu fark, \u201ccarry trade\u201di (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para biriminde getiri arama i\u015flemi) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelen son ABD enflasyonu %3,6 ile faiz indirim beklentilerini \u00f6teledi; bu da dolar\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Ancak Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale iste\u011fi, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00f6nemli bir risk yarat\u0131yor. 2025 May\u0131s\u2019\u0131ndaki yakla\u015f\u0131k 5,4 trilyon yenlik m\u00fcdahale \u015f\u00fcphesi, kurda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Japon yetkililer yeniden s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar yap\u0131yor; bu t\u00fcr uyar\u0131lar ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahaleden \u00f6nce s\u0131k\u00e7a gelirdi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (opsiyon, vadeli i\u015flem gibi) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu, \u201cy\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k\u201d stratejilerinin (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyen yakla\u015f\u0131m) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. USD\/JPY\u2019de \u201cstraddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d almak, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011fi net de\u011filken b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketten iki y\u00f6nde de kazan\u00e7 ihtimali sunar: 163,00 \u00fczeri k\u0131r\u0131lma ya da m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 158,00\u2019e do\u011fru sert geri \u00e7ekilme gibi. (Straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte almak. Strangle: ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte almak.)<\/p>\n
M\u00fcdahalenin \u201colur mu\u201d de\u011fil \u201cne zaman olur\u201d oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine do\u011frudan pozisyon almak m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr: JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (veya USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonu) almak. Bu strateji, riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlar; zarar, opsiyon primiyle (opsiyonu almak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r. M\u00fcdahaleden sonra g\u00f6r\u00fclebilen \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 ve \u00e7ok yenlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu opsiyonlar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha dengeli bir getiri\/riske (risk\u2013getiri oran\u0131) sahip olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 157\u2019de tutunma ar\u0131yor: Ortado\u011fu gerilimi ve \u015fahin Fed beklentisi dolar\u0131 desteklerken, geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 carry\u2019i besliyor; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi y\u00fckseli\u015fi frenleyip sert oynakl\u0131k riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46016","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46016","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46016"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46016\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46016"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46016"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46016"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}