Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.605 dolara geriledi. Piyasalar jeopolitik gerilimi izliyor. New York Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 John Williams\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde konu\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg\u2019e g\u00f6re, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Tahran\u2019\u0131n son bar\u0131\u015f teklifinin taleplerini kar\u015f\u0131lamayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 bitirmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck arabuluculuk \u00e7abalar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Trump ayr\u0131ca, pazartesiden itibaren Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan baz\u0131 tarafs\u0131z gemilerin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fine ABD\u2019nin rehberlik etmeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Bir \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkili, ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de devreye girmesinin ate\u015fkes ihlali say\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Yetkili, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nin \u201cs\u00f6z d\u00fcellosu\u201d yeri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ekledi.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun y\u00fckselmesi enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rabilir ve faiz indirimi ihtimalini azaltabilir; bu da alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Alt\u0131n belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00fcvenli liman olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr; ancak faiz getirisi sa\u011flamaz. Bu nedenle faizler y\u00fcksekken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in daha az cazip olabilir.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Reserve Bank of India), \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u0131l \u00fcst \u00fcste 100 metrik tondan fazla alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00fclkeye geri ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve Mart 2026 sonu itibar\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131k 880 metrik ton alt\u0131n tuttu. (Metrik ton: 1.000 kilogram.)<\/p>\n
Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki mevcut gerilim, fiyatlar\u0131n hem yukar\u0131 hem a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sert hareket edebilece\u011fi \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir risk yarat\u0131yor ve bunun piyasaya yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yak\u0131n vadeli alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k %25\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. (\u0130ma edilen oynakl\u0131k: Opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma seviyesi.) Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yaln\u0131zca tek y\u00f6ne bahis yapan vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha riskli hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n enflasyonu yeniden art\u0131rma riskine dikkat etmek gerekiyor. 2025\u2019te \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine %4,5\u2019e yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu nedenle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 hassas. John Williams\u2019tan \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir ton gelmesi alt\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir. (\u015eahin: Faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 veya artmas\u0131n\u0131 savunan, enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f.) Bu durumda, mevcut uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya \u201cay\u0131 put spread\u201d stratejisi tercih edilebilir. (Put opsiyonu: Belirli fiyattan sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131; ay\u0131 put spread: Bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put satarak maliyeti azaltan, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan strateji.)<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan do\u011frudan askeri t\u0131rmanma, g\u00fcvenli limana h\u0131zl\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Benzer bir olayda Ekim 2025\u2019te Brent petrol k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine varil ba\u015f\u0131na 130 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f, faiz endi\u015felerine ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 elde tutmak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yukar\u0131 potansiyel sa\u011flayabilir; risk primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r. (Call opsiyonu: Belirli fiyattan al\u0131m hakk\u0131; \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d: Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 lehine olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye.)<\/p>\n
Genel resimde, merkez bankalar\u0131ndan gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in destek olu\u015fturuyor. Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nlar\u0131 \u00fclkeye geri ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131, 2024 ve 2025 boyunca k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n agresif al\u0131m e\u011filiminin devam\u0131 niteli\u011finde. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 talebin, alt\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeleri kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n 4.605 dolara gerilerken g\u00f6zler H\u00fcrm\u00fcz geriliminde: Trump\u2019\u0131n hamlesi, \u0130ran\u2019dan ate\u015fkes uyar\u0131s\u0131 getirdi. Williams\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin mesaj\u0131 bask\u0131 yaratabilir; opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 %25\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131. Merkez bankas\u0131 talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46014","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46014"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46014\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}