\u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015f \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ay\u0131na girerken arabuluculuk \u00e7abalar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bloomberg\u2019in pazar g\u00fcnk\u00fc haberine g\u00f6re, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Tahran\u2019\u0131n son bar\u0131\u015f teklifinin kendi taleplerini kar\u015f\u0131lamayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Axios\u2019un, konuyu bilen iki kayna\u011fa dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberine g\u00f6re \u0130ran; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n sona ermesi ve \u0130ran ile L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n bitirilmesine y\u00f6nelik bir anla\u015fma i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere bir ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre \u00f6nerdi.<\/p>\n
Kaynaklara g\u00f6re b\u00f6yle bir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131l\u0131rsa, plan\u0131n devam\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in bir ay daha g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme yap\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n
Haber yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada i\u015flemlerde, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %1,05 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 98,18 dolar seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
WTI\u2019\u0131n 98,18 dolara gerilemesi, bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fine dair piyasa iyimserli\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Ancak fiyat, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik ABD deniz ablukas\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131; ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) verilerine g\u00f6re d\u00fcnyada deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol\u00fcn %20\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131 d\u00fczenli olarak bu bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7iyor.<\/p>\n
Bir ay i\u00e7inde anla\u015fma \u00e7\u0131kma ihtimalini y\u00fcksek g\u00f6renler i\u00e7in WTI \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 hak veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak daha temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Bu sayede bo\u011faz a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rsa fiyat\u0131n sert d\u00fc\u015fmesine pozisyon al\u0131n\u0131r; \u201cvadeli i\u015flem\u201dde (finansal varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n gelecekte belirlenen fiyattan al\u0131nmas\u0131\/sat\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re risk daha nettir. \u00d6te yandan \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen sert fiyat hareketi) \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in opsiyonlar pahal\u0131. Ancak bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalan\u0131rsa oynakl\u0131k genelde h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fer ve put sahipleri bundan fayda g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna ra\u011fmen temkinli kal\u0131yoruz; ba\u015fkan\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda Ukrayna\u2019daki sava\u015f WTI\u2019\u0131 birka\u00e7 haftada varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu m\u00fczakerelerin bozulmas\u0131 benzer bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 tetikleyebilir; bu y\u00fczden \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (anl\u0131k fiyata g\u00f6re hen\u00fcz k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f) \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine kar\u015f\u0131 hak veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) t\u0131rmanma riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma arac\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u201cikili\u201d tablo, yani fiyat\u0131n iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareket edebilme ihtimali, do\u011frudan \u201coynakl\u0131ktan\u201d kazanan stratejileri g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. \u201cUzun strangle\u201d (biri out-of-the-money call, di\u011feri out-of-the-money put olmak \u00fczere iki opsiyonu birlikte sat\u0131n alma) stratejisi, y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler. Bu, mevcut kilitlenmenin ve 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki fiyat\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair do\u011frudan bir beklentidir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcr m\u00fc? \u0130ran, bo\u011faz\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ablukan\u0131n kalkmas\u0131 i\u00e7in 1 ay m\u00fczakere \u00f6nerdi; Trump \u015f\u00fcpheli. WTI 98,18$\u2019a gerilerken, put\/call ve strangle stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46012","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46012","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46012"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46012\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46012"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46012"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46012"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}