AUD\/USD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,7215 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Avustralya dolar\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizi art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n
Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re, RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %80. Avustralya\u2019da man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi \u2013 genel enflasyon) Mart\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; %4,7 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kalsa da bankan\u0131n hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen ABD dolar\u0131na talebi destekledi; bu durum AUD\/USD\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. (G\u00fcvenli liman: Belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha az riskli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc para birimi\/varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi.) Bloomberg, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019nin Pazartesi\u2019den itibaren Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki baz\u0131 \u201ctarafs\u0131z\u201d gemileri H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fta y\u00f6nlendirmeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ranl\u0131 bir yetkili, ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki yeni denizcilik d\u00fczenine m\u00fcdahalesinin ate\u015fkes ihlali say\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bu geli\u015fmeler, d\u00f6viz paritesi (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) \u00fczerindeki belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
RBA\u2019n\u0131n daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rma iste\u011fi zay\u0131f, daha gev\u015fek duru\u015f) Fed\u2019in ise daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli) bir \u00e7izgide olmas\u0131, AUD\/USD \u00fczerinde temel bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Paritede 1 ayl\u0131k \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) son haftalarda %9\u2019dan %12,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu, piyasan\u0131n sert bir harekete haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan pozisyonlar daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te Orta Do\u011fu riskinde oldu\u011fu gibi, \u015fimdi de G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan jeopolitik belirsizlik \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Burada olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 art\u0131rarak ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d olarak daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu da AUD\/USD\u2019deki olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilecek bir tetikleyici olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle, Haziran ve Temmuz vadeleri i\u00e7in \u201cay\u0131 piyasas\u0131 put spread\u201d gibi stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir. (Put spread: D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle bir opsiyon sat\u0131n al\u0131p ba\u015fka bir opsiyon satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren ve kazan\u00e7\/zarar\u0131 belirli s\u0131n\u0131rlar i\u00e7inde tutan yap\u0131; \u201cvade\u201d ise opsiyonun sona erdi\u011fi tarihtir.) Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n AUD\/USD\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi durumunda f\u0131rsat sunarken, maksimum riski de ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlar; bu da ticaret gerilimlerinde ani bir yumu\u015faman\u0131n \u201ch\u0131zl\u0131 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f rallisi\u201d (sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 ani yukar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rama) yaratmas\u0131 ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 daha temkinli bir y\u00f6ntemdir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" AUD\/USD 0,7215\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131; piyasalar RBA\u2019dan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Ancak Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin \u00e7izgisi riskleri b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor: oynakl\u0131k artarken d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46011","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46011","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46011"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46011\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46011"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46011"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46011"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}