ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseldi ancak haftay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. \u0130ki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 97,72\u2019yi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 98,21 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki piyasa hareketlerinde Japonya\u2019n\u0131n piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi (kur m\u00fcdahalesi, yani merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz al\u0131p satarak kuru etkilemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) \u015f\u00fcphesi, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim ve yeni ticaret kayg\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Avrupa\u2019dan otomobil ithalat\u0131na uygulanan g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin (ithalat vergisi) %25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesiyle ticaret endi\u015feleri yeniden artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmek i\u00e7in Pakistanl\u0131 arabulucular \u00fczerinden yeni bir teklif iletti\u011fi haberleri sonras\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) daha \u00f6nce toparland\u0131. Ancak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar nedeniyle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler belirsizli\u011fini koruyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte DXY, kritik hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalamas\u0131; trendi g\u00f6stermek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r) alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor. Diren\u00e7 (fiyat\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketini zorlayan seviye), 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da (Basit Hareketli Ortalama) 98,47, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da 98,56 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA yak\u0131n\u0131nda 98,98 seviyelerinde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri (fiyat hareketinin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6stergeler) zay\u0131f kal\u0131yor: RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; 0-100 aras\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011fer zay\u0131f al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcne i\u015faret eder) 40\u2019lar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00f6lgesinde, MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama\/Iraksama; iki ortalama aras\u0131ndaki farkla trend\/momentum \u00f6l\u00e7er) ise hafif negatif. Destek (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 98,00 civar\u0131nda. Fiyat\u0131n 98,98\u2019i test edebilmesi i\u00e7in \u00f6nce 98,47 ve 98,56\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda 2025\u2019te ABD Dolar Endeksi 98,00 civar\u0131nda zay\u0131fl\u0131yordu; ticaret tehditleri ve Japonya m\u00fcdahale \u015f\u00fcpheleri bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yordu. Bug\u00fcn ise dolar daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc: 2 May\u0131s 2026 itibar\u0131yla 104,50 civar\u0131nda dengede. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7, bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re bak\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7 merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (\u00fclkelerin faiz ve para politikas\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131la\u015fma) olmaya devam ediyor. Ancak hik\u00e2ye de\u011fi\u015fti. Fed faiz indirimi d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015f olsa da, Nisan raporundaki y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; enflasyonun temel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerinden biri) gibi veriler indirimlerin piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha yava\u015f olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimine daha yatk\u0131n) sinyaller gelmesi, faiz fark\u0131 (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 faiz oran\u0131 fark\u0131) \u00fczerinden dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te oldu\u011fu gibi, kur m\u00fcdahalesi yeniden oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131ran \u00f6nemli bir etken. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7en ay yeni savunma ad\u0131mlar\u0131 att\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulamas\u0131, USD\/JPY paritesinde (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) sert ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez hareketlere neden oluyor; bu da Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde etkiliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n resm\u00ee ad\u0131mlardan kaynaklanan ani dalgalanmalara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminden tamamen d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Daha \u00f6nce 98,50 civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7 olan bu hareketli ortalamalar \u015fimdi piyasan\u0131n \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda. Mevcut 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 104,10 civar\u0131nda ve art\u0131k kritik destek konumunda. Yukar\u0131da ise 105,20 seviyesi, yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi i\u00e7in a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken ana diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in indirim h\u0131z\u0131ndaki belirsizlik ve yeni m\u00fcdahale riski nedeniyle tek y\u00f6ne net pozisyon almak (fiyat\u0131n tek y\u00f6nde gidece\u011fine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bahis) daha riskli. Bu oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7lar) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, DXY put opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) alarak dolar uzun pozisyonunu (dolarda y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle ta\u015f\u0131nan pozisyon) ani bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korumak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Alternatif olarak, uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma; b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler) gibi stratejiler, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda beklenen dalgal\u0131 seyirde etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DXY, 97,72\u2019den toparlansa da haftay\u0131 ekside kapat\u0131yor; Japonya m\u00fcdahale \u015f\u00fcphesi, Orta Do\u011fu ve Trump\u2019\u0131n %25 oto vergisi g\u00fcndemde. Teknikte 98,47-98,98 diren\u00e7, 98,00 destek. Fed-ECB ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45998","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45998"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45998\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45998"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45998"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45998"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}