Donald Trump, Truth Social\u2019da cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, ABD\u2019nin Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nden ithal edilen otomobil ve kamyonlara uygulanan g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisini gelecek haftadan itibaren %25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu. Bu ad\u0131m\u0131n, AB\u2019nin tamamen \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131na uymamas\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de bulunan tesislerde \u00fcretilen otomobil ve kamyonlara vergi uygulanmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca \u00e7ok say\u0131da otomobil ve kamyon fabrikas\u0131n\u0131n in\u015fa edildi\u011fini, 100 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun ABD otomobil ve kamyon \u00fcretiminde rekor d\u00fczey oldu\u011funu ifade etti.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131 98,00 seviyesi civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. Piyasa tepkisi bu fiyat band\u0131nda belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi.<\/p>\n
AB men\u015feli ara\u00e7lara %25 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, 2025\u2019teki s\u00f6ylemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Avrupa otomotiv \u00fcreticileri do\u011frudan bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Bu ad\u0131m, y\u00fcksek k\u00e2r b\u0131rakan sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc riske at\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Volkswagen ve Mercedes-Benz gibi Almanya merkezli \u00fcreticilerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: belli bir tarihe kadar, belirli bir fiyattan sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131yoruz. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l (2025) AB\u2019nin ABD\u2019ye otomobil ihracat\u0131 45 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; yeni vergi bu kritik gelir hatt\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan tehdit ediyor. Piyasa, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ticaret gerilimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeterince fiyatlam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Euro\u2019nun ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu nedenle EUR\/USD paritesinde (Euro\/Dolar kuru) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon al\u0131yoruz; kur \u015fu anda 1,08 civar\u0131nda. Tarihsel olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131, sermayenin dolara y\u00f6nelmesine neden olur; bu durum 2018-2019 d\u00f6neminde de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,05 seviyesine do\u011fru hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
Mevcut sakin seyrin ard\u0131ndan genel piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 15 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede, ancak bu t\u00fcr bir tarife haberi endeksi 20\u2019nin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Daha geni\u015f piyasa sars\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in VIX al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belli bir tarihe kadar, belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kullan\u0131yoruz; bu, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir korunma y\u00f6ntemidir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, AB\u2019nin misillemeye gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131. AB\u2019nin 2018\u2019deki yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD\u2019nin tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ve t\u00fcketici markalar\u0131 gibi kalemlerine cezaland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri beklenebilir. Bu da Avrupa sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 baz\u0131 ABD \u015firketlerinde a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f (short: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen sat\u0131\u015f i\u015flemi) f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 do\u011furabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tarife \u015foku kap\u0131da: Trump, AB\u2019den ithal otomobil-kamyon vergisini %25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. ABD \u00fcretimi muaf. Euro bask\u0131da, EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,05 hedefi. Alman hisseleri riskli; VIX s\u0131\u00e7rayabilir, misilleme bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45991","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45991","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45991"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45991\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45991"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45991"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45991"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}