EUR\/USD cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi. ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131na dair geli\u015fmeler ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131rken Euro\u2019yu destekledi. Parite 1,1768 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu seviye bir haftadan uzun s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine yak\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Haberlere g\u00f6re \u0130ran, ABD\u2019nin n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ertelemeyi ama\u00e7layan \u00f6nceki teklifi reddetmesinin ard\u0131ndan Pakistanl\u0131 arabulucular \u00fczerinden yeni bir \u00f6neri g\u00f6nderdi. Yeni \u00f6nerinin ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131. IRNA\u2019ya g\u00f6re D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Araghchi, b\u00f6lgedeki muhataplar\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeye y\u00f6nelik tutumu konusunda bilgilendirdi.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 son zirvelerden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geriledi, ABD Dolar\u0131 ise iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine indi. Dolardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte, Japon Yeni\u2019ndeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na (FX piyasas\u0131: para birimlerinin al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa) m\u00fcdahale etmi\u015f olabilece\u011fine dair \u015f\u00fcpheler de etkili oldu.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) 97,88 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,22 geriledi. ABD verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k geldi. ISM \u0130malat PMI (PMI: sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye, 50 alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder) nisanda 52,7 oldu; beklenti 53,0\u2019t\u0131. S&P Global \u0130malat PMI ise 54,0\u2019tan 54,5\u2019e revize edildi ve marttaki 52,3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) ve ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) bu hafta faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Fed yetkilileri bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n faiz indirimi ya da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca enflasyonda (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) yeni \u015foklar\u0131n, %2 hedefini korumak i\u00e7in birden fazla faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gerektirebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ECB yetkilileri, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n daha olas\u0131 hale geldi\u011fini belirtirken, k\u0131sa vadede b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi (GSYH: bir ekonominin toplam \u00fcretim de\u011feri) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken etkenlere ve enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tablo belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor; EUR\/USD jeopolitik haberlerle 1,1768\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu durum, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinden do\u011fan \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d beklentileriyle (g\u00fcvercin: faiz indirimi veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz yanl\u0131s\u0131) Fed ve ECB\u2019den gelen \u201c\u015fahin\u201d uyar\u0131lar\u0131 (\u015fahin: faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya getiriyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ana tema oynakl\u0131k (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dalgalanmas\u0131) olabilir.<\/p>\n
2024 ve 2025\u2019te enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) %3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na inmekte zorlanm\u0131\u015f, Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu da g\u00fcndemde kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, Fed ve ECB\u2019nin uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor ve faiz beklentilerinin h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da uzun vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131n (opsiyon: belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015fan enflasyon verilerine daha hassas hale getirir.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k yaln\u0131zca \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 de\u011fil; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi de \u00f6nemli bir etken ve DXY\u2019yi 97,88\u2019e itti. 2024\u2019te Japon yetkililerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli m\u00fcdahaleleri, dolar paritelerinde sert ve ani hareketler yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu risk, k\u0131sa dolar pozisyonlar\u0131nda (short: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle pozisyon) ani \u201cbo\u015fluk\u201d (gap: fiyat\u0131n bir seviyeden ba\u015fka bir seviyeye atlamas\u0131) riskini art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, vadeli i\u015flemlerle (futures: gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc basit bahisler i\u00e7in uygun de\u011fil. \u00c7eli\u015fkili sinyaller, straddle veya strangle gibi opsiyon stratejileriyle oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n almay\u0131 daha temkinli bir se\u00e7enek haline getirebilir. Bu pozisyonlar, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir harekette kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,1768 seviyesine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,05-1,12 band\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerindeyiz. 1,1800 \u00fczerindeki kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma yeni bir al\u0131m dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir ve k\u0131sa vadeli \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanan al\u0131m hakk\u0131) cazip k\u0131labilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin bozulmas\u0131 pariteyi 1,1500\u2019e do\u011fru h\u0131zla geri \u00e7ekebilir; bu senaryoda \u201cput\u201d korumas\u0131 (put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanan sat\u0131m hakk\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik r\u00fczg\u00e2r pariteyi u\u00e7urdu: ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131nda bar\u0131\u015f sinyalleri dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131rken EUR\/USD 1,1768\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131. DXY 97,88\u2019e geriledi; Fed-ECB \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve opsiyon talebini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45986","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45986","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45986"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45986\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45986"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45986"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45986"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}