NZD\/USD Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,5915 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,10 y\u00fckseldi ve 0,5930 \u00e7evresindeki son zirvelere yak\u0131n seyretti. ABD Dolar Endeksi 97,90 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; %0,23 gerilemesi pariteyi destekledi.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim piyasalar\u0131 etkilemeye devam etti. \u0130ranl\u0131 bir yetkili, ABD\u2019nin yeniden sald\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde misilleme uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n arabulucular \u00fczerinden ABD\u2019ye yeni bir \u00f6neri iletti\u011fine dair haberler, k\u0131sa vadeli endi\u015feyi azaltt\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomik verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k geldi. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek GSYH (bir \u00fclkenin \u00fcretti\u011fi toplam mal ve hizmet; ABD\u2019de \u00e7o\u011fu zaman y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oranla a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131r) y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %2 artt\u0131; %2,3 beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. ISM \u0130malat PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri sekt\u00f6rde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi g\u00f6sterir) Nisan\u2019da 52,7\u2019de kald\u0131; tahminlerin biraz alt\u0131nda olsa da b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) bu hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda faizi %3,5\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Fed ayr\u0131ca enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) y\u00fcksek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, bunda enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkili oldu\u011funu belirtti. Komite i\u00e7inde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131na da dikkat \u00e7ekerek, enflasyon yeniden h\u0131zlan\u0131rsa ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n masada oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in NZD\/USD\u2019de temkinli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimine i\u015faret ediyor. Beklentiden zay\u0131f ABD GSYH verisi Dolar\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor ve \u201cKiwi\u201dnin (Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131) toparlanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in alan a\u00e7\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar k\u0131sa vadeli momentumdan yararlanmak i\u00e7in 0,6000 seviyesine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d tonu (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli duru\u015f) \u00f6nemli bir engel olu\u015fturuyor ve y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Fed, enflasyon so\u011fumazsa ad\u0131m atmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu net bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6sterdi; bu da ABD Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Bu nedenle NZD\/USD\u2019de \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d sat\u0131m opsiyonu (out-of-the-money put; kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin alt\u0131nda olan sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131) satmak riskli olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren unsur, ABD Nisan T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (T\u00dcFE; hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar \u00fczerinden enflasyon) %3,6 gelmesi; Fed hedefinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. \u00d6te yandan Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ) da kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ediyor. Son RBNZ anketinde iki y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %2,8\u2019de sabit kald\u0131. Her iki ekonomide de enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi, paritenin net bir y\u00f6n bulmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik riskler belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebini (risk art\u0131nca daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) tetikleyebilir. Haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma, Kiwi\u2019nin son kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla geri ald\u0131rabilir. Bu nedenle riski \u00f6nceden belirli stratejiler (maksimum zarar ba\u015ftan bilinen i\u015flemler) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu z\u0131t etkenler nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in yatay bantta i\u015flem yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n daha uygun oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Net riskli bir strateji olarak \u201ciron condor\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call ve put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kullanarak, belirli bir fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon stratejisi) etkili olabilir; NZD\/USD\u2019nin zay\u0131f ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri ile \u015fahin merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 halinde getiri sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
NZD\/USD 0,5915\u2019te; zay\u0131flayan DXY ve Orta Do\u011fu haberleri Kiwi\u2019yi destekliyor. ABD verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k, Fed \u015fahin. Enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 iki tarafta. Sonu\u00e7: yatay bant, opsiyonda iron condor \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45985","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45985","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45985"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45985\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45985"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45985"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45985"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}