GBP\/JPY, Yen\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in Tokyo\u2019nun ikinci g\u00fcn de piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi \u015f\u00fcphesiyle ya\u015fanan erken saatlerdeki kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc toparland\u0131. Parite 211,81 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 213,42 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve haftay\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da kapatmaya y\u00f6neldi; bu, d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilk haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n
M\u00fcdahaleye dair resmi bir do\u011frulama gelmedi. Ancak yetkililer, USD\/JPY\u2019nin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cson\u201d uyar\u0131 verdi. GBP\/JPY, \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn 216,60 civar\u0131ndaki \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirveden 210,45\u2019e kadar gerilemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) ile di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131, Yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmaya devam etti. Son fiyat hareketi ve zay\u0131flayan momentum g\u00f6stergeleri (fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en teknik g\u00f6stergeler) k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte GBP\/JPY, spot fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalan 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (SMA: basit hareketli ortalama; fiyatlar\u0131n belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalamas\u0131) \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; al\u0131m-sat\u0131m bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) 40\u2019lar\u0131n ortas\u0131na do\u011fru gerilerken MACD (hareketli ortalamalar yak\u0131nsama\/\u0131raksama; trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) negatife d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7 214,50 civar\u0131nda. G\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde gelmesi 216,60\u2019a d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ihtimalini art\u0131rabilir. Destek, 211,89\u2019daki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da; ard\u0131ndan 206,74\u2019teki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik b\u00f6l\u00fcm bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 deste\u011fiyle haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131ndaki tabloya benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olu\u015fuyor. O d\u00f6nemde, Japon yetkililerin piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi \u015f\u00fcphesiyle GBP\/JPY 216,60 civar\u0131ndan sert gerilemi\u015fti. Daha sonra Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 verileri, Nisan ve May\u0131s 2025\u2019te toplam yakla\u015f\u0131k 9,8 trilyon Yen\u2019lik m\u00fcdahale yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015fti ancak bu ad\u0131m Yen\u2019e yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7ici destek sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bir y\u0131l sonra temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f de\u011fil. BoJ politika faizi yaln\u0131zca %0,1 seviyesinde. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ise faizini %4,75\u2019te tutuyor. Bu y\u00fcksek faiz fark\u0131, Yen yerine Sterlin ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 (faiz getirisi i\u00e7in para birimini elde tutmay\u0131) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu bask\u0131 GBP\/JPY\u2019yi yeni zirvelere ta\u015f\u0131rken parite 218,00 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da yeni bir resmi ad\u0131m riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasa (opsiyon gibi fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in ana risk, m\u00fcdahale ihtimalinin oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fiddeti) art\u0131rmas\u0131. \u00d6zellikle USD\/JPY\u2019nin 162 seviyesine yakla\u015fmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. GBP\/JPY\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) bu hafta ortalama %9\u2019dan %14\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine y\u00fckseldi. Bu, opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede sert bir hareketi fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda GBP\/JPY\u2019de \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu almak (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynama) uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem) korumak ya da sert geri \u00e7ekilmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in makul bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k opsiyon primini (opsiyonun maliyeti) art\u0131rsa da, riskin \u00f6nceden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu bir yap\u0131 sunar. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Tokyo\u2019dan gelebilecek sert savunma hamlesine kar\u015f\u0131 215\u2019in alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na (strike: opsiyonun hak fiyat\u0131) odaklanabilir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan, y\u00fcksek ima edilen oynakl\u0131k opsiyon satmay\u0131 (prim toplamak) cazip k\u0131labilir; ancak risk y\u00fcksektir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (\u015fu an fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan, hemen k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7meyen) call spread satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Call spread (al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda al\u0131p satarak risk\/geliri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji), parite belirli bir seviyenin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa veya d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ana y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in, m\u00fcdahale gelmemesi halinde parite y\u00fckselmeye devam edebilir ve pozisyon h\u0131zla zarara d\u00f6nebilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan destek seviyeleri psikolojik a\u00e7\u0131dan h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00f6nemli. 212,00 b\u00f6lgesinin alt\u0131na ini\u015f, yeni bir m\u00fcdahalenin ciddi etki yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edebilir. Al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n bu alan\u0131 2025\u2019teki kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc savunup savunmayaca\u011f\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir d\u00fczeltme mi yoksa daha derin bir gerilemenin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 m\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirleyecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tokyo\u2019nun olas\u0131 ikinci m\u00fcdahalesi sonras\u0131 GBP\/JPY toparland\u0131; ancak haftay\u0131 eksiye \u00e7evirdi. Teknikte momentum zay\u0131f, 214,50 diren\u00e7. Faiz fark\u0131 Yen\u2019i bask\u0131l\u0131yor; opsiyonlarda oynakl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45974","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45974"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45974\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45974"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45974"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45974"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}