Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc bir\u00e7ok kurulu\u015f, \u0130ranl\u0131 kaynaklara dayanarak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmeyi hedefleyen yeni bir teklif g\u00f6nderdi\u011fini bildirdi. Haberlere g\u00f6re bu teklif, ABD\u2019nin Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Pakistanl\u0131 arabulucular \u00fczerinden iletti\u011fi de\u011fi\u015fikliklere (revizyonlara) \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yan\u0131t\u0131 niteli\u011finde.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fetin ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131 di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetti. Yay\u0131n s\u0131ras\u0131nda Dolar Endeksi (ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) %0,23 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 97,88 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
ABD hisse endeksi vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekteki bir tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131. S&P 500 Vadeli Kontratlar\u0131 %0,15 y\u00fckselirken, Nasdaq Vadeli Kontratlar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,2 geriledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019dan gelen yeni teklifle birlikte piyasalarda klasik bir \u201crisk i\u015ftah\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (risk-on)\u201d sinyali g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD dolar\u0131ndaki ilk zay\u0131flama, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte tercih edilen varl\u0131klar) ara\u00e7lardan uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, b\u00fcy\u00fck varl\u0131k gruplar\u0131nda \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
En do\u011frudan i\u015flem fikri olarak CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nde (VIX: S&P 500 i\u00e7in piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklenebilir. VIX\u2019in nisan sonlar\u0131nda 17 civar\u0131nda seyretmesinin ard\u0131ndan, ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm endeksi y\u0131l i\u00e7i dip seviye olan 14\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, VIX\u2019te \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonu satmay\u0131 (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin \u00fczerinde olan ve primi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan opsiyon) veya \u201csat\u0131m opsiyonu spreadi\u201d (biri al\u0131nan di\u011feri sat\u0131lan iki sat\u0131m opsiyonuyla maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; ama\u00e7 piyasalar\u0131n sakinle\u015fmesinden yararlanmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasalar\u0131nda jeopolitik riskin azalmas\u0131 \u00f6zellikle geni\u015f endeks S&P 500 i\u00e7in destekleyici bir unsur. S&P vadeli kontratlar\u0131ndaki olumlu tepki, anla\u015fma ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu potansiyel y\u00fckseli\u015fe \u201ckald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131\u201d (k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sermayeyle daha b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyon etkisi) maruz kalmak i\u00e7in SPY borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonunda (ETF: endeksi takip eden ve borsada hisse gibi i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
En belirgin etkinin enerji taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi bekleniyor. Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (IEA) son tahminlerine g\u00f6re, resmi bir anla\u015fma k\u00fcresel piyasaya g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,5 milyon varile kadar ek \u0130ran petrol\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Bu arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Bu nedenle WTI ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (ABD tipi ham petrol i\u00e7in vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) veya USO petrol fonunda uzun vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: fiyat hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonu dengeleme) amac\u0131yla daha cazip hale gelebilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda, g\u00fcvenli liman \u00f6zelli\u011fi zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a ABD dolar\u0131nda s\u00fcren bir zay\u0131flama beklenebilir. Benzer bir e\u011filim 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ilk g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin h\u0131z kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu nedenle, Invesco DB USD Bullish Fund (UUP: dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fine g\u00f6re performans hedefleyen ETF) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak, dolar taraf\u0131nda sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yla kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, bu ortam alt\u0131n gibi k\u0131ymetli metaller i\u00e7in olumsuzdur; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu varl\u0131klar genelde belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00fc\u00e7lenir. Alt\u0131n zaten ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.400 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 olmakta zorland\u0131 ve bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. GLD alt\u0131n ETF\u2019sinde al\u0131m opsiyonu spreadi satmak (y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle yap\u0131lan strateji) jeopolitik sakinli\u011fin yeni y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019da: Sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck yeni teklif risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; dolar endeksi geriledi. VIX\u2019te d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, S&P\u2019de destek; \u0130ran petrol\u00fc arz\u0131 WTI\u2019\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45968","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45968"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45968\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45968"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45968"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45968"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}