Japon Yeni, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Kuzey Amerika i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ilk kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. USD\/JPY, 155,50 seviyesine kadar geriledikten sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k 156,55\u2019e toparland\u0131; parite g\u00fcn\u00fc hafif ekside s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Avrupa seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde Yen\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert hareket, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etmi\u015f olabilece\u011fi beklentisine ba\u011fland\u0131. Ancak resmi bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klanmayan bir m\u00fcdahale beklentisi, Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama\u2019n\u0131n Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda \u201ckararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlara\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki s\u00f6zlerinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Yen\u2019deki ilk s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, piyasalar genelinde de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi i\u00e7in USD\/JPY\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015f de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n piyasada, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bu y\u0131l faiz indirmeyece\u011fi beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re (Fed\u2019in faiz beklentilerini vadeli i\u015flemlerden t\u00fcreten g\u00f6stergesi), Fed\u2019in politika faizini y\u0131l sonuna kadar %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %83,6.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde odak, 14:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI verisine \u00e7evrilecek. ISM \u0130malat PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki faaliyet ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) i\u00e7in Nisan beklentisi 53,0; Mart\u2019ta 52,7 olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de 155,50 ile 156,55 aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan sert dalgalanmalar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) \u015f\u00fcphesi Japon m\u00fcdahalesiyle besleniyorsa, tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar daha riskli hale gelir.<\/p>\n
Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha sonra yeni destek i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 5,5 trilyon yen harcand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131; bu, 2022 sonundaki m\u00fcdahalelerden bu yana tek g\u00fcnde yap\u0131lan en b\u00fcy\u00fck i\u015flem oldu. Bu hamle pariteyi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekse de, faiz fark\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n, y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine talebi art\u0131rmas\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu da yetkililerin devreye girmeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor ve \u015fimdilik 157-158 b\u00f6lgesinde \u201cyumu\u015fak bir tavan\u201d (fiyat\u0131n bu b\u00f6lgeyi a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n zorla\u015fmas\u0131) olu\u015ftu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f yakalayamamas\u0131 da \u00f6nemli. \u00d6zellikle ge\u00e7en hafta ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI verisi 51,5 ile beklenti olan 53,0\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu tablo, Fed faizleri sabit tutsa bile, verilerin Dolar\u2019\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek zemini her zaman sa\u011flamayabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Bu nedenle USD\/JPY\u2019de yukar\u0131 hareketin daha yava\u015f ilerlemesi, araya ise sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin girmesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir ay i\u00e7in USD\/JPY\u2019de \u201coynakl\u0131k almak\u201d amac\u0131yla uzun straddle veya strangle (opsiyon stratejileri; her iki y\u00f6nde b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket oldu\u011funda kazan\u00e7 hedefler) kullan\u0131m\u0131 daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Bu t\u00fcr stratejiler, paritenin hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011fini do\u011fru tahmin etme zorunlulu\u011funu azalt\u0131r: Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 test eden yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f de, m\u00fcdahalenin pariteyi 155 alt\u0131na itmesi de f\u0131rsat yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f almak isteyenler i\u00e7in, \u201cdebit call spread\u201d (prim \u00f6denerek kurulan, y\u00fckseli\u015ften s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen ve riski ba\u015ftan belirleyen opsiyon stratejisi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar; ancak Japon yetkililer daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir m\u00fcdahaleye giderse ya\u015fanabilecek ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi daha iyi korur.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yen\u2019de m\u00fcdahale r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131: USD\/JPY 155,50\u2019den 156,55\u2019e toparland\u0131. Resmi teyit yok, ancak 5,5 trilyon yenlik hamle volatiliteyi art\u0131rd\u0131. Fed\u2019in faiz indirmeme fiyatlamas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; g\u00f6zler ISM PMI verisinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45963","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45963","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45963"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45963\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45963"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45963"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45963"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}