Hindistan\u2019\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervleri 20 Nisan itibar\u0131yla 698,49 milyar dolar seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. <\/p>\n
Bu rakam, \u00f6nceki raporlama d\u00f6nemindeki 703,31 milyar dolara g\u00f6re geriledi.<\/p>\n
Hindistan\u2019\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin 700 milyar dolar e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na inmesi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bir haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 milyar dolarl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. RBI\u2019nin, rupi \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kaybetmesin diye piyasada dolar satmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Bu m\u00fcdahale, k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar nedeniyle \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) bu y\u0131l ilk kez 107 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Brent petrol (Kuzey Denizi tipi ham petrol, k\u00fcresel referans fiyat) ise varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini koruyor; bu da ithalat faturas\u0131 \u00fczerinden rupi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca yabanc\u0131 kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII: b\u00fcy\u00fck yabanc\u0131 fonlar) net sat\u0131c\u0131 konuma ge\u00e7ti; Nisan 2026\u2019da Hindistan hisselerinden 2,5 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
RBI\u2019nin bu ad\u0131mlar\u0131, \u015fimdilik USD\/INR paritesindeki (1 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7 rupi etti\u011fini g\u00f6steren kur) y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak spot kuru (anl\u0131k kur) dar bir bantta tutabilir. Ancak bu \u201caktif savunma\u201d, altta yatan k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret eder. Bu nedenle rupi opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckselmesi olas\u0131. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, spot kur g\u00f6rece yatay kal\u0131rken, korunma maliyetinin (hedging: kur riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan i\u015flem) artmas\u0131yla bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, 3 ila 6 ay vadeli USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Call opsiyonu, belirli bir vadede belirli bir fiyattan dolar alma hakk\u0131 sa\u011flar; kur y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazan\u0131r. Bu strateji, hem oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan hem de RBI\u2019nin m\u00fcdahaleyi gev\u015fetmesi halinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanabilir. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde rupinin de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kontroll\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olur.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir tablo 2022\u2019de de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 sonras\u0131 RBI, rupideki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in rezervlerinden ciddi sat\u0131\u015flar yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O d\u00f6nem, m\u00fcdahalenin dalgalanmay\u0131 yumu\u015fatsa da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00fcresel e\u011filime uzun s\u00fcre kar\u015f\u0131 durman\u0131n zor oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Mevcut rezerv seviyesi y\u00fcksek olsa da, bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi politika yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesini zorunlu k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
700 milyar dolar e\u015fi\u011fi a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131: Hindistan rezervleri 698,49 milyar dolara indi. RBI\u2019nin rupiyi savunmak i\u00e7in dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, DXY ve petrol bask\u0131s\u0131yla opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltip hedging maliyetini art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45961","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45961"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45961\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}