USD\/JPY kurunda 160 seviyesine yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclen be\u015f yen civar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Nikkei\u2019nin haberine g\u00f6re Japonya\u2019n\u0131n piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki iddialarla ili\u015fkilendirildi. Hamle, yetkililerin Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 belirsizlik ve \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki ya\u015fam maliyetleri art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirirken yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatma giri\u015fimi olarak yorumland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOJ) bu hafta faiz art\u0131rmad\u0131; gerek\u00e7e olarak belirsizlik g\u00f6sterildi. Japonya\u2019da Golden Week tatili gelecek hafta Pazartesi-\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnleri aras\u0131nda; bu d\u00f6nemde piyasada i\u015flem hacmi d\u00fc\u015febilir (likidite azal\u0131r) ve fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 artabilir.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re yen aleyhine a\u00e7\u0131lan pozisyonlar (yen short: yenin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle yap\u0131lan i\u015flemler) ge\u00e7mi\u015f m\u00fcdahale d\u00f6nemlerine k\u0131yasla daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 veya enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha da y\u00fckselmesi halinde, k\u00fcresel tahvil faizleri artt\u0131k\u00e7a USD\/JPY\u2019nin h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanabilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Raporda, Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MOF) Ekim 2022 ve Temmuz 2024\u2019te yen al\u0131m\u0131yla piyasaya m\u00fcdahalesine at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131. O d\u00f6nemlerde ABD tahvil faizleri geriledi\u011fi i\u00e7in kur bir s\u00fcre bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Nisan\/May\u0131s 2024\u2019teki m\u00fcdahaleden sonra ise ABD faizleri d\u00fc\u015fmedi; bu nedenle Temmuz\u2019a gelindi\u011finde yeniden m\u00fcdahale gerekti\u011fi not edildi.<\/p>\n
Yeni bir s\u00fcrpriz hamleye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in yen al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (yen call: gelecekte belirli fiyattan yen alma hakk\u0131) veya USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: gelecekte belirli fiyattan dolar\/yen satma hakk\u0131) daha temkinli bir koruma arac\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Opsiyonlarda \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) 1 ayl\u0131k vadede y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndaki %8 seviyesinden Nisan sonu 2026 itibar\u0131yla %11,5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da piyasadaki tedirginli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de uzun pozisyonda kalma iste\u011fi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201ccarry\u201d (faiz getirisi: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminde bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para biriminde getiri toplama) h\u00e2l\u00e2 cazip. BOJ bu y\u0131l \u015fu ana kadar yaln\u0131zca 10 baz puanl\u0131k (0,10 puan) k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapt\u0131. Ancak 2025\u2019in dersi \u015fuydu: Bir g\u00fcnde 5 yenlik ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, aylarca biriken faiz getirisini silebiliyor. Bu nedenle, 170 gibi psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fe yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken yen carry i\u015flemlerinde risk-getiri dengesi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk lehine bozuluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY\u2019de 160 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 5 yenlik sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesiyle ili\u015fkilendi. BOJ beklemede; Golden Week likiditeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Carry cazip, ancak opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45957","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45957"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45957\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45957"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45957"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45957"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}