WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 107,35 dolarda duran yakla\u015f\u0131k iki haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda 102,25 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu hareket fiyatlar\u0131 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yatay b\u0131rakt\u0131, ancak seviyeler h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
Fiyatlar, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n (piyasaya sunulan enerji miktar\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019siyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 bir g\u00fczerg\u00e2h olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131yla destek buldu. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n teklifini reddetmesi ve \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 uzataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 sonras\u0131, kapanman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fl\u0131ca merkez bankalar\u0131ndan gelen \u201c\u015fahin\u201d mesajlar (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 sinyali) gelecekteki petrol talebine (t\u00fcketim iste\u011fi ve miktar\u0131) dair endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131. Karar vericiler enflasyonda (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere dikkat \u00e7ekti ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin etkisiyle ileride daha s\u0131k\u0131 para ko\u015fullar\u0131na (daha y\u00fcksek faiz, daha zor finansman) i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
WTI yatay seyretti ve 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcssel hareketli ortalama; son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) 95,15 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. RSI 60,95 seviyesinde. Destek (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunabildi\u011fi seviye) 95,15 dolarda; g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na inerse bir sonraki destek 90,00 dolar.<\/p>\n
WTI 107,35 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa 113,28 dolara do\u011fru hareket edebilir. WTI, ABD ham petrol\u00fc i\u00e7in referans fiyatt\u0131r; Cushing (Oklahoma) teslim noktas\u0131 \u00fczerinden i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcr. Fiyatlar b\u00fcy\u00fcme, jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, OPEC kararlar\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131 ve haftal\u0131k API ile EIA stok verilerinden (ABD\u2019de ham petrol stok de\u011fi\u015fimleri) etkilenebilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki deniz ablukas\u0131yd\u0131. Bu durum d\u00fcnya enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakarak y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bug\u00fcn bu kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f hatt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k; son OPEC+ toplant\u0131lar\u0131 ise \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131n\u0131 (\u00fcretim s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131) istikrarl\u0131 tutarak arz taraf\u0131 endi\u015felerini azaltt\u0131. Son EIA raporu da bu tabloyu destekliyor: Ge\u00e7en hafta ham petrol stoklar\u0131 1,3 milyon varil artt\u0131; bu, 2025\u2019te izlenen stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine k\u0131yasla belirgin bir fark.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi zay\u0131flad\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde fiyat 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerindeydi; \u015fimdi ise ona yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Bu, daha dengeli bir piyasaya i\u015faret ediyor. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; fiyat hareketinin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 52 civar\u0131nda; bu n\u00f6tr bir seviye ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki rallide g\u00f6r\u00fclen 60+ de\u011ferlerinden uzak.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te \u201c\u015fahin\u201d merkez bankalar\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 endi\u015feler art\u0131k ekonomide daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr etkilere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bir y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerde yava\u015flama g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) son iki toplant\u0131da faizi sabit tuttu. Bu da oda\u011f\u0131 gelecekteki enflasyon riskinden mevcut talep g\u00fcc\u00fcne \u00e7evirdi. Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA) da yak\u0131n zamanda y\u0131l i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahminini (beklenen talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda oynakl\u0131k (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve fiyat daha \u201cbant i\u00e7inde\u201d (belirli bir aral\u0131kta) hareket ederken, do\u011frudan al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re daha az cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bunun yerine, istikrardan faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir: \u00d6rne\u011fin eldeki uzun pozisyonlara kar\u015f\u0131 \u201ccovered call\u201d satmak (elindeki varl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 call satarak prim geliri elde etmek). Ekonomik yava\u015flamadan endi\u015fe edenler i\u00e7in \u201cput spread\u201d (sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla kurulan, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 koruma stratejisi) 80 dolar civar\u0131ndaki son destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle korunma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde kritik e\u015fik: WTI 107,35 sonras\u0131 102,25\u2019te yatay. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski arz\u0131 desteklerken, \u015fahin merkez bankalar\u0131 talep endi\u015fesi yarat\u0131yor. Teknikte 95,15 \u00fcst\u00fc pozitif; 107,35 a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa 113,28 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45956","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45956"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45956\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45956"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45956"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45956"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}